g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 1 Donald Trump is Winning in Minnesota’s 8th – The Monster Vote
October 24, 2016 / datagooroo
A poll released today gives insight into the “Monster Vote”. It is a
congressional poll that shows a small edge for a Republican running for the
House of Representatives against a Democrat incumbent in Minnesota’s 8th
district.
The evidence in the poll for the monster vote is found by linking the poll
data with some historical information. The polls headline is that the
Republican is winning by 4 points, but reading into the article http://kstp.com/politics/stewart-mills-rick-nolan-8th-congressional-race-kstp-survey-usa-poll/4299301/ you find some good nuggets of information, three big factors:
Trump is beating Hillary by 12 points: “Our poll shows Republican
Donald Trump with a 12-point lead over Clinton, 47 percent to 35 percent“
Trump is winning with women: “leading Clinton 41 percent to 39 percent
.”
Dems are crossing over: “the number of Democrats dropped from 34
percent in 2014 to 27 percent in 2016. The number of independents jumped
from 31 percent two years ago to 41 percent this year.“
You may say, this is one congressional district and it does not represent
the whole country. Right it does not, but it does represent old fashion
Democrats. Democrats who do not really support the party’s position on
social issues, but have traditionally voted for Democrats because they
believed the Democrat was for the “worker”.
This district could be a microcosm of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois
, Wisconsin, and Iowa. According to Wikipedia, Minnesota’s 8th district
has voted Democrat for the past 4 presidential elections, so why would it be
polling +12 for Trump???
https://whatthedatasays.wordpress.com/2016/10/24/donald-trump-is-winning-in-
minnesotas-8th-the-monster-vote/ |
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 2 说了今年翻红几个兰州一点不稀奇 rust belt和东北部的蓝州压根不是防火墙 里根明
珠党不是今年或者这两年才开始叛变的 这个趋势已经持续了好几届了 不过一直没有找
到合适的代言人 今年床铺明确的反全球化口号直接戳中G点 大规模的转党今年爆发一
点不奇怪 |
t*c
发帖数: 6929 | 3 这是duluth地区，如果这个poll做的对的话，
具有相当代表性。
the
【在 g********2 的大作中提到】
: Donald Trump is Winning in Minnesota’s 8th – The Monster Vote
: October 24, 2016 / datagooroo
: A poll released today gives insight into the “Monster Vote”. It is a
: congressional poll that shows a small edge for a Republican running for the
: House of Representatives against a Democrat incumbent in Minnesota’s 8th
: district.
: The evidence in the poll for the monster vote is found by linking the poll
: data with some historical information. The polls headline is that the
: Republican is winning by 4 points, but reading into the article http://kstp.com/politics/stewart-mills-rick-nolan-8th-congressional-race-kstp-survey-usa-poll/4299301/ you find some good nuggets of information, three big factors:
: Trump is beating Hillary by 12 points: “Our poll shows Republican
|
L****c
发帖数: 1466 | |
f********k
发帖数: 745 | 5 赞
【在 h*******n 的大作中提到】
: 说了今年翻红几个兰州一点不稀奇 rust belt和东北部的蓝州压根不是防火墙 里根明
: 珠党不是今年或者这两年才开始叛变的 这个趋势已经持续了好几届了 不过一直没有找
: 到合适的代言人 今年床铺明确的反全球化口号直接戳中G点 大规模的转党今年爆发一
: 点不奇怪
|
t*c
发帖数: 6929 | 6 看来本届大选不是红州变蓝，
而是蓝州变红的趋势。
the
【在 g********2 的大作中提到】
: Donald Trump is Winning in Minnesota’s 8th – The Monster Vote
: October 24, 2016 / datagooroo
: A poll released today gives insight into the “Monster Vote”. It is a
: congressional poll that shows a small edge for a Republican running for the
: House of Representatives against a Democrat incumbent in Minnesota’s 8th
: district.
: The evidence in the poll for the monster vote is found by linking the poll
: data with some historical information. The polls headline is that the
: Republican is winning by 4 points, but reading into the article http://kstp.com/politics/stewart-mills-rick-nolan-8th-congressional-race-kstp-survey-usa-poll/4299301/ you find some good nuggets of information, three big factors:
: Trump is beating Hillary by 12 points: “Our poll shows Republican
|
t*******d
发帖数: 12895 | |
S*******l
发帖数: 4637 | 8 民主党抛弃了蓝领，主力是白领了，现在。意识形态主打。
蓝领就投奔床铺了。
驴象两党要来历史上第二次换边儿了。
【在 t*c 的大作中提到】
: 这是duluth地区，如果这个poll做的对的话，
: 具有相当代表性。
:
: the
|
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 9 红州变蓝只在主党几个五毛的臆想中 一般总统选举大胜的一方很少congressional/
local选举会输 08年主党占领参众两院和巴马的人气不无关系 今年风水轮流转而已 今
年主党人品败完 床铺友超高人气 vote down the ballot再正常不过 |
d****y
发帖数: 502 | 10 真的吗？Duluth 又有大学又有黑墨，要是能赢就真是。。。太好了
Trump应该去 twin cities 争取一下，至少周围农村的人民可以教育一下那帮liberals
the
【在 g********2 的大作中提到】
: Donald Trump is Winning in Minnesota’s 8th – The Monster Vote
: October 24, 2016 / datagooroo
: A poll released today gives insight into the “Monster Vote”. It is a
: congressional poll that shows a small edge for a Republican running for the
: House of Representatives against a Democrat incumbent in Minnesota’s 8th
: district.
: The evidence in the poll for the monster vote is found by linking the poll
: data with some historical information. The polls headline is that the
: Republican is winning by 4 points, but reading into the article http://kstp.com/politics/stewart-mills-rick-nolan-8th-congressional-race-kstp-survey-usa-poll/4299301/ you find some good nuggets of information, three big factors:
: Trump is beating Hillary by 12 points: “Our poll shows Republican
|
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f********8
发帖数: 5601 | 11 看Iowa今年红到什么程度了。MN就在IA北边一点点。如果Iowa赢10个点，MN有戏。 |
c*******4
发帖数: 1874 | 12 明尼苏达是穆斯林难民最早的聚集地吧
the
【在 g********2 的大作中提到】
: Donald Trump is Winning in Minnesota’s 8th – The Monster Vote
: October 24, 2016 / datagooroo
: A poll released today gives insight into the “Monster Vote”. It is a
: congressional poll that shows a small edge for a Republican running for the
: House of Representatives against a Democrat incumbent in Minnesota’s 8th
: district.
: The evidence in the poll for the monster vote is found by linking the poll
: data with some historical information. The polls headline is that the
: Republican is winning by 4 points, but reading into the article http://kstp.com/politics/stewart-mills-rick-nolan-8th-congressional-race-kstp-survey-usa-poll/4299301/ you find some good nuggets of information, three big factors:
: Trump is beating Hillary by 12 points: “Our poll shows Republican
|
f********8
发帖数: 5601 | 13 不少。上次Mall of America里被砍，现在人民有阴影啊。
【在 c*******4 的大作中提到】
: 明尼苏达是穆斯林难民最早的聚集地吧
:
: the
|
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 14 穆斯林强插的是个别城镇 穆斯林整体人口比黑人少太多 对大选的规模而言 目前影响
还不是很大 |
l*********o
发帖数: 3091 | 15 这两天再砍一次，崔出MN的票.
【在 f********8 的大作中提到】
: 不少。上次Mall of America里被砍，现在人民有阴影啊。
|
F*********s
发帖数: 537 | 16 蓝州变红：WI, MI, CO, NV, WA, NJ等等。
【在 t*c 的大作中提到】
: 看来本届大选不是红州变蓝，
: 而是蓝州变红的趋势。
:
: the
|
h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 17 Obamacare再补一刀 今年明州翻蓝不是什么不可能的事 mal里砍人发生后的一度poll都
拉平了
: 不少。上次Mall of America里被砍，现在人民有阴影啊。
【在 f********8 的大作中提到】
: 不少。上次Mall of America里被砍，现在人民有阴影啊。
|
