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发帖数: 29846 | 1 http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/09/nonfarm-payr
Initial Reaction
The payroll survey shows a net gain of 162,000 jobs vs. an expectation of
230,000 jobs. This broke a six-month string of +200,000 jobs.
Digging into the details, things look far worse.
The household survey shows a gain in employment of only 16,000. This is the
fourth month in the last five that the household survey was substantially
weaker than the headline number.
The average employment gain in the past five months is 125,200 vs. an
average gain in jobs over the same period of 230,800 per month.
Is a trend forming? If so, it doesn't bode well. That said, the household
survey is volatile and over time the data series merge. The question now is
which one is right? At turns, the household survey tends to lead.
The labor force fell by 64,000. Those not in the labor force increased by
268,000. The unemployment rate fell by 0.1% thanks to a decline in the labor
force greater than the rise in employment.
BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance
Nonfarm Payroll: +142,000 - Establishment Survey
Employment: +16,000 - Household Survey
Unemployment: -80,000 - Household Survey
Involuntary Part-Time Work: -234,000 - Household Survey
Voluntary Part-Time Work: -136,000 - Household Survey
Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.1 at 6.1% - Household Survey
U-6 unemployment: -0.2 to 12.0% - Household Survey
Civilian Non-institutional Population: +206,000
Civilian Labor Force: -64,000 - Household Survey
Not in Labor Force: -268,000 - Household Survey
Participation Rate: -0.1 at 62.8 - Household Survey
Additional Notes About the Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey,
not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly
claims data.
In the past year the working-age population rose by 2,270,000.
In the last year the labor force rose by 524,000.
In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 1,745,000
In the past year, the number of people employed rose by 2,189,000 (an
average of 182,417 a month)
Please note that over the course of the last year, the working-age
population rose by more than the number of people employed. In normal times,
the unemployment rate would have gone up slightly. Instead, the
unemployment rate fell from 7.2% to 6.1%.
Over 100% of the decline in unemployment in the past year is due to people
dropping out of the labor force, rather than strength in the economy!
August 2014 Employment Report
Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) July 2014 Employment
Report.
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, and the
unemployment rate was little changed at 6.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and
business services and in health care.
The official unemployment rate is 6.1%. However, if you start counting all
the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs
that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment
rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer
picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row
labeled U-6.
U-6 is much higher at 12.0%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it
not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.
Labor Force Factors
Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs
People retire because they cannot find jobs
People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting
a job
People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job
Disability and disability fraud
Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force over the past several
years, the unemployment rate would be well over 9%. Some of those dropping
out genuinely retired. However, millions retired involuntarily. That is,
they needed to retire and collect social security because they had no job
and no income. Such folks are no longer in the labor force even if they want
a job. The falling unemployment rate is very deceiving, painting a picture
of improvement that simply does not exist.
A gallup survey on the economy better reflects how the average Joe feels: 38
% Think Economy Getting Better, 56% Say Worse. |
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