l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 我最深爱的人，伤我却是最深”：最支持奥巴马的群体－－年轻人，黑人，拉丁裔－－
在当前经济环境下受打击最大
http://nationaljournal.com/columns/political-connections/obama-
A 2012 Paradox
David McNew/Getty Images
A tough job: Obama’s base is full of people seeking employment.
The voters Obama will need the most were the voters most hurt in the
recession.
April 28, 2011 | 3:23 p.m.
Updated: April 29, 2011 | 2:54 p.m.
Now that President Obama has (presumably) dispatched the questions about his
birthplace, the White House may have more time to focus on graver threats
to his reelection.
Like this paradox: Many of the groups that Obama needs to turn out most
enthusiastically in 2012—particularly young people, African-Americans, and
Latinos—are still suffering the most as the economy crawls back from the
Great Recession. That dynamic looms like a crack in the foundation for Obama
’s reelection, which relies on those groups surging to the polls in 2012
after their participation sagged even more than usual in the 2010 midterms.
The continued strain on the groups at the core of Obama’s coalition
underscores the political stakes in his recent turn toward deficit reduction
. Obama’s pledge to reduce the deficit by about $4 trillion over the next
12 years has allowed him to shift the debate from whether to reduce the
deficit to how. That’s much stronger terrain for Obama and Democrats—as
demonstrated by the sharp backlash many congressional Republicans faced in
town halls this week over the GOP’s proposal to convert Medicare into a
voucher (or premium support) system.
But many liberal strategists fear that Obama could win this battle and lose
the war in 2012. These critics argue that the tactical benefits of embracing
greater deficit reduction come at a high cost: By agreeing that Washington
must tighten its belt, the president has essentially precluded additional
large-scale government efforts to stimulate growth and create jobs. “You
are really conceding whatever the growth we have is the growth you are going
to run with—and maybe even a little less, because you are going to start
cutting spending,” says veteran liberal activist Robert Borosage,
codirector of the Campaign for America’s Future.
To Borosage and like-minded critics, that means Obama is consigning himself
to relatively high levels of unemployment in 2012. The risk is especially
great among the groups that Obama most needs to mobilize. In the latest
federal figures, unemployment stood at 15.5 percent among African–Americans
, 13.4 percent among young people, and 11.9 percent among Latinos. In each
case, those figures are down since January but still higher than when Obama
took office—and considerably higher than among whites (8.3 percent).
Belt-tightening precludes additional government stimulus efforts.
The Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank, recently analyzed
the trends in greater detail. Its findings should chill the White House.
Unemployment among workers younger than 25 with only a high school diploma
averaged almost 23 percent in 2010—nearly double the level in 2007. Even
among workers that age with a college degree, unemployment has averaged
nearly 10 percent over the past year. There are enough Latinos in 15 states
for the Bureau of Labor Statistics to track their job status; in 12 of them
(including such battlegrounds as Colorado, Florida, and Nevada), the Latino
unemployment rate exceeded 10 percent last year. In all 23 states in which
there are enough African Americans to reliably measure unemployment, the
average rate last year exceeded 10 percent; in 17 of them, it exceeded 15
percent.
The pain in these communities extends beyond unemployment to a historic
liquidation of wealth. Census figures, for instance, show that homeownership
rates have declined significantly faster among both African-Americans and
Latinos than whites.
In 2008, Obama won three-fifths of voters under 30, two-thirds of Latinos,
and 95 percent of African-Americans. With his support among older and blue-
collar whites eroding, he needs big showings among all those groups again in
2012.
There’s no sign of wavering in Obama’s black support. But in 2010, exit
polls found that the Democratic vote in House elections dipped among both
young people (to 55 percent) and Latinos (to 60 percent). In Gallup’s
weekly averages of its tracking poll, Obama’s approval rating has reached
60 percent among Latinos only once since January—and has never been that
high among young people. His ratings among both groups have fallen below 50
percent over the past two weeks; among Latinos, he’s at his lowest level
ever.
Against those warning signs, the White House is betting that these young and
minority voters will mostly look forward, not back, as they choose in 2012.
Recent Gallup polling shows that while young people and minorities are more
negative than older whites about their current economic circumstances, they
are also more optimistic about their financial future. One senior White
House official argues that such optimism suggests a residual faith in Obama.
The president will also benefit, the official maintained, from drawing
contrasts with a GOP nominee likely to be tugged toward conservative
positions on issues ranging from immigration reform to retrenching student
loans. Previewing a likely Obama case, the official argued: “These are also
the people who will be hurt most by the policies of our opponents.”
Those are plausible arguments. But second-term presidential elections almost
always unfold less as a choice than as a referendum on the incumbent. And
that means Obama has placed a huge wager by embracing a fiscal strategy that
denies him many tools to directly address the continuing struggles of
African-Americans, Latinos, and young people. They may be at the margin of
the economy, but they’re at the center of his electoral coalition.
This article appeared in the Saturday, April 30, 2011 edition of National
Journal. | e***s
发帖数: 1397 | 2 But their love to the dear leader is unconditional - so no big deal.
【在 l****z 的大作中提到】
: 我最深爱的人，伤我却是最深”：最支持奥巴马的群体－－年轻人，黑人，拉丁裔－－
: 在当前经济环境下受打击最大
: http://nationaljournal.com/columns/political-connections/obama-
: A 2012 Paradox
: David McNew/Getty Images
: A tough job: Obama’s base is full of people seeking employment.
: The voters Obama will need the most were the voters most hurt in the
: recession.
: April 28, 2011 | 3:23 p.m.
: Updated: April 29, 2011 | 2:54 p.m.
| T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 3 True.
Never underestimate the stupidity of the Retarded!
【在 e***s 的大作中提到】
: But their love to the dear leader is unconditional - so no big deal.
| l******a
发帖数: 3803 | 4
Lib-thugs know where to direct their hatred.
【在 T**********1 的大作中提到】
: True.
: Never underestimate the stupidity of the Retarded!
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