g****t
发帖数: 31659 | 1 格林厄姆是所谓“价值投资”的创始人。
然而他显然不是不懂TA。
我认为，反过来他的话里面，书里面，认可的TA的办法
更值得重视。例如下面第二条。还有第三条。
具体的条文可以忽略。但有一条是本质性正确的：你的账户里面
一定要有固定比例的bond/cash。
很多时候，rebalancing是自动的高抛低吸。
50%的钱放在那里没有利用，是一种错觉。
Let me suggest three such rules: (1) The individual investor should act
consistently as an investor and not as a speculator. This means, in sum,
that he should be able to justify every purchase he makes and each price he
pays by impersonal, objective reasoning that satisfies him that he is
getting more than his money's worth for his purchase--in other words, that
he has a margin of safety, in value terms, to protect his commitment. (2)
The investor should have a definite selling policy for all his common stock
commitments, corresponding to his buying techniques. Typically, he should
set a reasonable profit objective on each purchase--say 50 to 100 per cent--
and a maximum holding period for this objective to be realized--say, two to
three years. Purchases not realizing the gain objective at the end of the
holding period should be sold out at the market. (3) Finally, the investor
should always have a minimum percentage of his total portfolio in common
stocks and a minimum percentage in bond equivalents. I recommend at least 25
per cent of the total at all times in each category. A good case can be
made for a consistent 50-50 division here, with adjustments for changes in
the market level. This means the investor would switch some of his stocks
into bonds on significant rises of the market level, and vice-versa when the
market declines. I would suggest, in general, an average seven- or eight-
year maturity for his bond holdings. |
z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 2 成功的投资者里，FA强的人的TA，TA强的人的FA，一般都是不多但是很精的
【在 g****t 的大作中提到】
: 格林厄姆是所谓“价值投资”的创始人。
: 然而他显然不是不懂TA。
: 我认为，反过来他的话里面，书里面，认可的TA的办法
: 更值得重视。例如下面第二条。还有第三条。
: 具体的条文可以忽略。但有一条是本质性正确的：你的账户里面
: 一定要有固定比例的bond/cash。
: 很多时候，rebalancing是自动的高抛低吸。
: 50%的钱放在那里没有利用，是一种错觉。
: Let me suggest three such rules: (1) The individual investor should act
: consistently as an investor and not as a speculator. This means, in sum,
|
y***r
发帖数: 16594 | 3 这个是很有道理的。
没钱的话，暴跌了干着急捞不到低。
没股票的话，暴涨了一堆钱一点都没利用上心理空荡荡。
其实更多hedge fund都是short的有，long的有。遇到暴跌，就把short的cover了，遇
到暴涨就把long的close了。这种情况貌似很爽，要是两个都做反了就哭死。 |
n*******s
发帖数: 17267 | 4 老头投资一直赔钱，只是到后来发现一个niche,就是买 good stock that is on huge
sale, 现在离可以shopping的时间还差了至少一年 |
n*******s
发帖数: 17267 | |
g****t
发帖数: 31659 | 6 对的。TA好的人，一般都不会选很傻的股票。
【在 z***e 的大作中提到】
: 成功的投资者里，FA强的人的TA，TA强的人的FA，一般都是不多但是很精的
|
z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 7 在市场快大跌时，基本上要cut gross，否则volatility上升必然会被两边抽
【在 y***r 的大作中提到】
: 这个是很有道理的。
: 没钱的话，暴跌了干着急捞不到低。
: 没股票的话，暴涨了一堆钱一点都没利用上心理空荡荡。
: 其实更多hedge fund都是short的有，long的有。遇到暴跌，就把short的cover了，遇
: 到暴涨就把long的close了。这种情况貌似很爽，要是两个都做反了就哭死。
|
g****t
发帖数: 31659 | 8 格林厄姆好像也是20%收益什么的几十年。
但他<智慧投资者>一书的后记说了，搞了那么久的价值投资。
最后还是Geico这个成长股上面赚了比以前加起来都多。他承认，炒股
也可以有不同的方法。
huge
【在 n*******s 的大作中提到】
: 老头投资一直赔钱，只是到后来发现一个niche,就是买 good stock that is on huge
: sale, 现在离可以shopping的时间还差了至少一年
|
z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 9 我觉得长期投资的两个甜点，一个是周期性行业惨淡筑底快结束时买入，另外一个是看
准长期成长股，在盘子还不算大时买入
【在 g****t 的大作中提到】
: 格林厄姆好像也是20%收益什么的几十年。
: 但他<智慧投资者>一书的后记说了，搞了那么久的价值投资。
: 最后还是Geico这个成长股上面赚了比以前加起来都多。他承认，炒股
: 也可以有不同的方法。
:
: huge
|
n*******s
发帖数: 17267 | 10 他只是后来弄了几百万然后就不干了，前面配的很惨
【在 g****t 的大作中提到】
: 格林厄姆好像也是20%收益什么的几十年。
: 但他<智慧投资者>一书的后记说了，搞了那么久的价值投资。
: 最后还是Geico这个成长股上面赚了比以前加起来都多。他承认，炒股
: 也可以有不同的方法。
:
: huge
|
g****t
发帖数: 31659 | 11 1929年格林厄姆外婆了。后来开窍了，写书，重新上路。
Known as the “Father of Value Investing”—and the mentor of Warren
Buffett—Graham’s investment firm posted annualized returns of about 20%
from 1936 to 1956, far outpacing the 12.2% average return for the broader
market over that time.
But the success of Graham’s approach goes far beyond even that lengthy
period. For nearly a decade, I have been tracking a portfolio of stocks
picked using my Graham-inspired Guru Strategy, which is based on the “
Defensive Investor” criteria that Graham laid out in his 1949 classic, The
Intelligent Investor. And, since its inception, the portfolio has returned
224.3% (13.3% annualized) vs. 43.0% (3.9% annualized) for the S&P 500.
Even with all of the fiscal cliff and European debt drama in 2012, the
Graham-based portfolio has had a particularly good year. While the S&P 500
has notched a solid 13.7% gain (all performance figures through Dec. 17),
the Graham portfolio is up more than twice that, gaining 28.5%.
【在 n*******s 的大作中提到】
: 他只是后来弄了几百万然后就不干了，前面配的很惨
|
I***a
发帖数: 13467 | 12 说来说去，
卖书稳赚，卖系统稳赚，卖消息稳赚..... |
