Stock版 - 全球变暖，温室气体控制，基本就是个joke (转载) |
|---|
|
|
|
|
|
|
k*********u
发帖数: 2897 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: awaydream (大剑一挥风雷动，不畏豪强斩蛇虫。), 信区: Military
标 题: 全球变暖，温室气体控制，基本就是个joke
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Nov 9 12:46:29 2011, 美东)
Joke 归joke， 既然人家想玩，我们还是可以玩的。
我的判断是，全球变暖是joke，据中国的一些专家说，气候很可能很快变冷。
那这个时候，我们国家的企业可以把碳排放的指标，抓紧时间卖给西方愿意
买的傻比公司，套现，多捞点钱。
等到过一阵，全球变暖的谣言不攻自破，碳排放的指标就一文不值，
我们中国就等于空手套白狼了。
我记得沙钢好像卖了不少钱，其他企业也该抓紧时间跟进。 | k*********u
发帖数: 2897 | 2 发信人: kunlunrunyu (返璞归真), 信区: Military
标 题: Re: 全球变暖，温室气体控制，基本就是个joke
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Dec 7 21:15:47 2011, 美东)
see, 碳排放指标正在被清零。
早卖的发财了，哈哈。
祝贺沙钢！
Record Low
Prices for Certified Emission Reductions, known as CERs, for December
delivery settled today at 4.90 euros ($6.57) a metric ton on the ICE
Futures Europe exchange, the lowest closing price since they began trading
in 2008. The credits have lost 80 percent from their peak of 25 euros in
July 2008. | k*********u
发帖数: 2897 | 3 信人: kunlunrunyu (返璞归真), 信区: Military
标 题: Re: 全球变暖，温室气体控制，基本就是个joke
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Dec 7 21:14:11 2011, 美东)
Carbon Credits Becoming ‘Junk’ Before 2013 Ban Closes Door: Energy Markets
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-06/carbon-credits-becomin
Investors are rushing to sell some United Nations emission credits before
they become almost worthless in 2013, pushing prices to a record low.
With Europe set to stop recognizing credits for projects that destroy
industrial gases known as hydrofluorocarbon-23 and nitrous oxide in little
more than a year, holders are “racing to beat” the ban, according to
Bloomberg New Energy Finance. A UN program that encourages reductions in the
industrial gases awarded almost twice as many credits for them this year as
in 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. They account for about
two-thirds of all so-called Certified Emission Reductions supplied by the UN
-managed program.
Enel SpA, Honeywell International Inc. (HON) and Solvay SA (SOLB)’s Rhodia
unit are among investors in projects from Mexico to China and India that
will lose their biggest market for emission credits as the European Union,
home of the world’s largest cap- and-trade system, phases out so-called
offsets it has linked to “windfall” profits that undermine the market’s
integrity. Emissions-trading systems in Australia and New Zealand also will
forbid so-called industrial-gas credits, compounding a glut that sent prices
for the credits to an all-time low last month.
“It’ll be a junk market” for the banned credits, Geoff Sinclair, London-
based head of carbon trading at Standard Bank Plc, said in an interview in
Singapore. After 2013, nobody will buy industrial-gas credits and countries
that have yet to rule them out, such as New Zealand, are preparing to do so,
he said.
Record Low
Prices for Certified Emission Reductions, known as CERs, for December
delivery settled today at 4.90 euros ($6.57) a metric ton on the ICE Futures
Europe exchange, the lowest closing price since they began trading in 2008.
The credits have lost 80 percent from their peak of 25 euros in July 2008.
The discount of EU-banned credits for 2012 over those accepted in 2013,
traded as a separate contract, widened 12 percent to 48 cents.
HFC-23 and N2O projects have racked up about 500 million CERs valued at more
than 2.5 billion euros at today’s prices. Developers received 144 million
CERs in 2011, including those that will still be accepted in the EU system.
That compares with 78 million in 2010 and 82.8 million in 2009, according to
UN data. The projects stand to earn at least 150 million credits by the end
of 2012, according to Bloomberg estimates.
Supply in 2011 may surpass 300 million tons this year and next under the UN-
run emissions credit market, from 132 million last year, said Trevor
Sikorski, a London-based analyst at Barclays Capital. It will keep rising in
2012, he said.
“Next year is another difficult one for the carbon market” Sikorski said
in an interview in Singapore. “It looks a heavily supplied year.”
Last Resort
The UN market, known as the Clean Development Mechanism, was set up by the
1997 Kyoto Protocol as a way of letting richer nations offset their
emissions at home by paying for cleaner technology in emerging markets.
Investors in these projects get CERs that they can sell to companies and
governments with pollution caps. While the EU is the largest market for UN
offsets, Australia will allow emitters to use CERs for as much as half of
their emissions starting in 2015.
Envoys from 190 nations are meeting this week in Durban, South Africa, to
discuss climate rules. A failure to get a second compliance period to follow
the Kyoto Protocol would be a “new low” for the UN program, Sikorski said.
Industrial-gas credits may eventually find buyers in Japan, which is
planning to set up bilateral emissions trading with other countries. Still,
the ban on these credits may be extended to the governments of 38 nations
with emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol, the European Commission
said in a Nov. 14 statement. That would remove the only remaining markets
for industrial-gas credits after 2013.
Environmental Poison
HFC-23 and NO2 are so damaging to the environment that they should be banned
outright and not entitled to get emission credits, the EU and other
governments have said. HFC-23 can trap 11,700 times more heat per molecule
than carbon dioxide and remain in the atmosphere for over 200 years,
according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Giuseppe Deodati, head of carbon strategy at Enel SpA, declined to comment
last month on how it would sell industrial gas CERs after 2013. Enel is the
largest private investor in HFC-23 projects, with stakes in seven of 19
projects globally, according to data compiled by the UN Environment Program
’s Risoe Centre.
Roop Salotra, chief executive of the chemicals business at SRF Ltd. (SRF),
which is set to earn 52 million CERs from its HFC-23- destroying project in
Rajasthan, India, by 2020, declined to respond to an e-mail from Bloomberg.
Forward Contracts
Some industrial-gas projects have sold credits to be created after 2012
through forward contracts, according to Vishwajit Dahanukar, managing
director of Managing Emissions, a Mumbai-based broker. The contracts have a
clause saying the CERs to be generated must be compliant with the EU’s
Emissions Trading System, he said.
“The buyers for these CERs are typically companies that are large
compliance buyers and they wouldn’t expose themselves to that kind of risk,
” Dahanukar said.
At least 11 publicly traded companies own projects that reduce emissions of
HFC-23 or N2O, according to UN project documents. They include a plant set
up by Rhodia in Brazil, a facility in Mexico started by a joint venture
between Honeywell and Cydsa SAB (CYDSASAA), and at least 10 other projects
owned by China’s Zhejiang Juhua Co. (600160) and Dongyue Group (189) and
India’s Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd. (RCF), SRF Ltd., Chemplast
Sanmar Ltd. (CPI), Gujarat Fluorochemicals Ltd. (GFLC), Navin Flourine,
Hindustan Fluorocarbons Ltd. (HFC) and Deepak Fertilizers & Petrochemicals
Corp. (DFPC)
Closing Door
“There’s an oversupply situation driving prices down even as demand
remains weak and uncertain,” said Henry Derwent, head of the International
Emissions Trading Association, in an interview in Singapore. “The door to
HFC credits has closed just about everywhere.”
The EU also is introducing geographic restrictions on offsets in its market.
From 2013, it will accept new offsets only from projects based in least-
developed countries. That will exclude China and India, which are set to
supply 88 percent of all CERs to be generated to 2012, according to the
Roskilde, Denmark-based Risoe Center.
Chinese producers are threatening to release the gas back into the
atmosphere if they can’t find a way to sell credits, Xie Fei, revenue
management director at the state-run China Clean Development Mechanism Fund,
said in a Nov. 3 interview.
The industry is counting on new domestic emissions-trading systems planned
in Australia, South Korea, Japan and China, said Xuedu Lu, adviser to the
Asian Development Bank and a former Chinese climate negotiator.
“Some people say just scale up supply and there will be new carbon markets,
” he said. “This is totally wrong. If there’s no demand, your supply has
nowhere to go.”
Price Lows
CER prices may extend their slump as the credits flood the market, according
to Assaad Razzouk, chief executive officer of Sindicatum Sustainable
Resources Group, a developer of clean- energy projects that is partly owned
by Citigroup Inc. and Cargill Inc.
“The price impact would be that they would still have a market but would
sell at significantly less,” Razzouk said.
The prospect of lower prices and dwindling buyers is weighing on Indian
companies, which are increasingly reluctant to register new projects with
the UN program, said Anmol Singh Jaggi, director of Gensol Consultants Pvt.
in Ahmedabad, India, which advises and brokers carbon projects. Filings that
developers need to submit before registering projects are down by 50
percent since last year, he said.
“New registrations may be up because the UN is working overtime to process
them before the cutoff, but people have stopped trying to register new
projects,” Jaggi said. “What’s the point? If I start now, I won’t be
able to finish in time.”
There is a “massive push” to register as many projects as possible before
the end of 2012 in order to qualify for EU ETS eligibility, said Richard
Chatterton, analyst for Bloomberg New Energy Finance. It’s increasingly
unlikely that these projects will get through in time, he said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Dinakar Sethuraman in New Delhi at
d*****[email protected]; Natalie Obiko Pearson in Mumbai at npearson7@
bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski at
a**********[email protected] | k*********u
发帖数: 2897 | | p********n
发帖数: 2046 | 5 GLOBAL WARMING是一个错误词汇。
夏热冬冷才是特征。 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
