p**8
发帖数: 3883 | | d*****d
发帖数: 276 | 2 ###此帖已应当事人要求删除###
【在 p**8 的大作中提到】
: 昨天还好在尾盘空了一些石油.
| p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 3 都是投機。不要太執著就好。石油持有做長線，肯定賺。 | c***m
发帖数: 2630 | 4 What is your long term view? Say 1 month to 6 month?
I have seen so many pro. traders lost their fourturn when they bet for short
term gain but lost in long run. Hopefully you are different.
【在 p**8 的大作中提到】
: 昨天还好在尾盘空了一些石油.
| p**8
发帖数: 3883 | | p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 6 I said "石油是一个比较难做的期货，因为石油受供求，汇率，政治，经济，甚至气候
的影响。石油波动比较大，做得好比较容易挣钱。" | p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 7 covered OIL short position.
【在 p**8 的大作中提到】
: 昨天还好在尾盘空了一些石油.
| p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 8 As Oil Demand Grows Faster, OPEC Needs to Up Output
OIL, SAUDI ARABIA, SUPPLIES, PRICES BRENT CRUDE COMMODITIES ENERGY UNITED
STATES GAS PRICES CONSUMERS MIDDLE EAST, OPEC
Reuters | 07 Jun 2011 | 09:47 PM ET
Global oil demand is growing faster than analysts expected just six months
ago, according to a new Reuters poll that could bolster the case for OPEC to
open the taps at Wednesday's meeting in Vienna.
The poll of 10 top oil analysts showed oil demand will grow by 1.5 million
barrels per day (bpd) this year to hit a record 89 million bpd. At that
level, global use will have risen by 5 percent since the depths of the
recession in 2009.
The forecast for demand this year is 300,000 bpd higher than it was in the
last Reuters poll in December, based on strong emerging market growth. And
early indications for 2012 suggest growth will quicken further.
Expectations for additional crude oil supplies from countries not in OPEC
have also risen by 500,000 bpd, but the loss of Libya's output has stepped
up pressure on the group.
The so-called 'call on OPEC' — the mathematical difference between supplies
not produced under OPEC's quota system and global demand — has eased
marginally to 30 million bpd from 30.2 million bpd. But that still implies
OPEC, including Iraq who is outside the output target system, needs to raise
real output by 300,000 bpd compared with last year's levels.
"The need for OPEC crude in the upcoming quarters is unambiguously clear,"
said Barclays Capital analyst Amrita Sen, adding that demand is expected to
be especially strong in the second half of the year.
Demand for conventional OPEC oil would be even higher without the expected
500,000-bpd rise in OPEC production of crude-like natural gas liquids (NGLs)
and other fuels not covered by output targets. The forecast for OPEC NGL
output is unchanged from December at 5.8 million bpd.
OPEC Meets in Vienna
The OPEC secretariat's analytical arm is among the least bullish forecasts
on demand, forecasting just 88.1 million bpd of consumption in 2011. By
contrast, Deutsche Bank forecasts demand at 89.6 million bpd.
JP Morgan, which said in May that Brent crude could jump to $130 a barrel in
the third quarter, said demand is expected to average 89.4 million bpd this
year, though it also forecast the highest figure for non-OPEC supply. The
bank's expected call on OPEC is one of the lowest at 29.6 million bpd.
That call is shared with Goldman Sachs, its main rival for the title of the
largest investment house in commodity markets. Goldman has cut its 2011
demand estimate by 300,000 bpd since December, but has said it remains
bullish of oil prices in the medium-term due to concerns about the amount of
spare production capacity within OPEC.
Brent crude oil prices have risen from around $90 at the end of last year to
near $115 currently, and are on course to average a record $110 or more for
2011.
Saudi Arabia said on Tuesday it is planning to lift oil output by 500,000
bpd this month to between 9.5 million and 9.7 million bpd in a bid rein in
prices, even if OPEC fails to raise production targets or actual output.
Many analysts agree that demand is only going to get stronger from here.
"The seasonality in the oil market means that peak demand is the third going
into the fourth quarter," Nic Brown, head of commodity research at Natixis
told Reuters Investment Outlook
Summit in London on Tuesday.
"There's danger we will see a sharp drop in crude stocks around the world."
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its forecast for
demand growth on Wednesday to 1.7 million bpd, putting it higher than both
OPEC and the IEA.
Faster Growth in 2012 — Can OPEC Respond?
Early forecasts for demand next year from Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank,
Goldman Sachs and the EIA show the potential for supply to grow by around 1.
8 million bpd in 2012, with an average forecast of 90.8 million bpd.
The average forecast for the call on OPEC crude next year is 31.4 million
bpd, 1.4 million above the 2011 estimate.
Goldman Sachs has argued such rapid demand growth could test OPEC's ability
to keep the market comfortably supplied.
"We expect OPEC will raise actual production levels in the second half of
2011 and will need to move to operating at its effective capacity limits in
2012," Goldman analysts said in a note on Wednesday.
【在 p**8 的大作中提到】
: 昨天还好在尾盘空了一些石油.
| p**8
发帖数: 3883 | |
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