I******r
发帖数: 47 | 1 BAC实战：
1. 基本方法—问题股票抄底，期待咸鱼翻身。
2. 买入点：价格<<价值，技术面上，左侧抄底，因为在牛市中，左侧抄底风险不大
。但如果大盘接下来跌破50日均线进入一波中级调整，那么BAC会朝$10甚至更低走去，
到时补仓。
卖出点：假如成功的话，问题过后，股价回升；结合大盘高位和金融板块，盈利出色等
情况卖出。
3. 风险控制：不止损。
4. 关键问题：Sued by third-party investors (including blackrock, New York
Fed, Pimco, Iowa, Maine) to repurchase mortgage bond, 47billion by the
first three groups.
5. 现在，通常的基本分析已经不重要，关键在于需要买回多少的mortgage bond。
一些指标例如price to tangible bookvalue，大概0.85；六大银行中最低，次低的是C
，大约0.95。Reuters估计2011年每股收益1.42（从一年前的2.19不断的降到现在的1.
42）。
6. 10月份以来的问题：10月13号开始下跌，smart money开始大抛售（Paulson在三
季度看淡金融，已经抛售了17%的BAC股票，也抛售了大量的花旗，卖完了GS，他的BAC
均价在9-10之间，所以盈利还是可观的，这次抛售中有没有参与，等下一次文件吧，说
不定他还抄底了，去年花旗增发，股价被打到$3.1，结果2010年一季的文件显示，
Paulson和Soros在低位增仓了）低位放量大跌，10月15号大银行暴跌，BAC, JPM,WFC,
主要是foreclosure mistake, document crisis百姓愤怒，Obama发话。之后，其他大
银行反弹，BAC继续放量大跌，10月19号原因出来了，Pimco, Blackrock, NY Fed sue
to force BAC to repurchase 47 billion of mortgage bond。当天出来三季报，每股
亏损$0.77，其实季报一点都不差，因为扣除$10.4B的商誉减值损失，每股盈利$0.27。
而商誉损失，在我看来对公司未来业绩没有任何影响。之后11.5左右金融股反弹，原因
包括11月4号，洛杉矶法庭缩小Iowa public employee’s retirement system对BAC
mortgage repurchase的要求，number ofofferings at dispute从352billion 到
31billion。那两天BAC大涨，11.9号文件显示，两位高管，包括主席Holliday买入
30000 shares at $ 12.61, Scully买入39500 shares at $ 12.45，根据价格，应该在
11月5日买入，也就是法庭作出判决后的第二天。11月份，BAC抛售Blackrock的股票。
还有要偿回雷曼5亿美金。
7. 买问题股票当然要分析关键问题—mortgage bond repurchase：其实，银行一直
在repurchase mortgage，只是规模不大。如果真的上百个billion的都要银行买回的话
，几个大银行都要遭殃（主要是BAC, JPM, WFC, C，每个都要受到破产规模的损失），
其他银行也有受到起诉，但被起诉的规模远远没有BAC来的大。Here's What Citigroup
Said About Its Mortgage Repurchase Risk：Revenues also reflected an
addition of $322 million of mortgage repurchase reserves related to North
America residential real estate, compared to $347 million in the prior
quarter. 年初的时候有分析师认为四大银行在接下来两年中得买入$15B的mortgate
securities。真出问题了，我相信受损的不单单是BAC。我相信最后结果如BAC CEO
Moynihan所说的，the cost is manageable。 | l*****u
发帖数: 180 | | b******e
发帖数: 471 | | J**S
发帖数: 25790 | | N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 5 By Jim Willie
By the way, notice how Bank of America quietly is approaching the funeral
parlor. Word from my sources tell of Wall Street buying heavily the Credit
Default Swap contracts for Irish and Portuguese Govt debt, in order to lift
the bond yields enough to create a renewed crisis.
That accomplishes two goals. EU financial distress creates some selling
pressure for the Euro currency, thus supporting the USDollar. But a buoyed
buck did not soften the gold price!! Sabotage of PIIGS sovereign debt is the
order of the day so as to force the situation in Europe, which is stuck.
The US bankers sense the need for contagion and crisis to befall Europe once
more.
Ruinous monetary policy is being exported from US locations. In the recent
spring months, the USDollar was given a relative lift from Greek financial
woes. This time, the effect will not be the same. Perhaps they can engineer
an eerie calm in the FOREX currency market. But the more hidden motive is to
provide effective diversion from Bank of America.
It is in a death spiral that requires almost daily cash infusions. As one
source put it, "The wires for funds transfers at the Federal Reserve are
burning from daily rescues of BOA." Witness the demise of Bank of America,
again. Its own 200-day moving average serves as a ceiling on a dark pathway
leading to the cemetery. Its managed death decline has come without news
items. The mortgage mess is their curse. | f*******4
发帖数: 345 | 6 Very good.
FA does not work if the Fundamentals are not Facts.
lift
the
once
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
: By Jim Willie
: By the way, notice how Bank of America quietly is approaching the funeral
: parlor. Word from my sources tell of Wall Street buying heavily the Credit
: Default Swap contracts for Irish and Portuguese Govt debt, in order to lift
: the bond yields enough to create a renewed crisis.
: That accomplishes two goals. EU financial distress creates some selling
: pressure for the Euro currency, thus supporting the USDollar. But a buoyed
: buck did not soften the gold price!! Sabotage of PIIGS sovereign debt is the
: order of the day so as to force the situation in Europe, which is stuck.
: The US bankers sense the need for contagion and crisis to befall Europe once
| r***k
发帖数: 13586 | | S*L
发帖数: 1746 | 8 理论上会有MM到处Shake抽插把有止损的散户赶出场。
俺是不敢碰BAC。准备把一个没几个钱的支票账户迁出
去到USB或者WFC去了。
【在 r***k 的大作中提到】
: 这一条为什么？
: 3. 风险控制：不止损。
| b*******y
发帖数: 1455 | 9 如果BOA破产了是不是俺的mortgage就不用还了？
【在 S*L 的大作中提到】
: 理论上会有MM到处Shake抽插把有止损的散户赶出场。
: 俺是不敢碰BAC。准备把一个没几个钱的支票账户迁出
: 去到USB或者WFC去了。
| S*L
发帖数: 1746 | 10 其实你只要到他们仓库里面把你的
房贷的原始纪录销掉就可以安心不
还了。目前还没有一家公司合法地
提供这种服务。商鸡啊。
【在 b*******y 的大作中提到】
: 如果BOA破产了是不是俺的mortgage就不用还了？
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