r*c
发帖数: 16750 | |
A******k
发帖数: 708 | |
m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 3 现在是最难Trade的.
You can not take decisive action.
Personally, I think the downside is limited simply S&P only trades at 13
times earning.
【在 r*c 的大作中提到】
: 牛，熊都不好做啊
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g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 4 真大牛一句，顶伪大牛100句。
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: 现在是最难Trade的.
: You can not take decisive action.
: Personally, I think the downside is limited simply S&P only trades at 13
: times earning.
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b******n
发帖数: 370 | 5 it's around 17 PE currently. Where do you see 13?
And if earning is not going to continuously grow, 17 consider high.
in 2003-206 period, with stable growing earning, S&P PE is only 17-18.
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: 现在是最难Trade的.
: You can not take decisive action.
: Personally, I think the downside is limited simply S&P only trades at 13
: times earning.
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r*****t
发帖数: 7278 | |
s*****n
发帖数: 5488 | 7 调整市，要吗横着摸，要么拿空间来换。两者都没有到位的情况下，抄抄底，打打短线
好了。或者高抛低收把长线股成本做下去。
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: 现在是最难Trade的.
: You can not take decisive action.
: Personally, I think the downside is limited simply S&P only trades at 13
: times earning.
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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 8 日内反弹撞线时候空是最好的，短线play, 甚至当日。easy money.
【在 s*****n 的大作中提到】
: 调整市，要吗横着摸，要么拿空间来换。两者都没有到位的情况下，抄抄底，打打短线
: 好了。或者高抛低收把长线股成本做下去。
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b*******e
发帖数: 6389 | 9 那天在bestbuy碰到一个来自加州某乐队的黑人鼓手来本地演出，开着BMW，嘴里喊着ea
sy money。。。
【在 v****e 的大作中提到】
: 日内反弹撞线时候空是最好的，短线play, 甚至当日。easy money.
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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 10 然后你往地上扔了一个quarter，他弯腰去拣的时候，你忍不住摸了一下他的屁股？
ea
【在 b*******e 的大作中提到】
: 那天在bestbuy碰到一个来自加州某乐队的黑人鼓手来本地演出，开着BMW，嘴里喊着ea
: sy money。。。
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|
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p*********n
发帖数: 556 | 11 I think he means forward PE.
【在 b******n 的大作中提到】
: it's around 17 PE currently. Where do you see 13?
: And if earning is not going to continuously grow, 17 consider high.
: in 2003-206 period, with stable growing earning, S&P PE is only 17-18.
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b*******e
发帖数: 6389 | 12 这种事只有坑王能想出来。。。
【在 v****e 的大作中提到】
: 然后你往地上扔了一个quarter，他弯腰去拣的时候，你忍不住摸了一下他的屁股？
:
: ea
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b******n
发帖数: 370 | 13 forward PE depends on the incoming earning for next year.
PE (13) itself gives pessimistic or uncertain attitude of investor, isnt
that true? Plus how reliable those analyst estimates are?
An example: in May 2009, the earning estimates for past Q is 9$, the actual
now is close 20. Forward PE (based on the esitmate at that moment) is over
20.
I may rathe believe investors are more accurate than analysts in this sense.
【在 p*********n 的大作中提到】
: I think he means forward PE.
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b******n
发帖数: 370 | 14 unfortunately, I am not as good as or as bad as anyone here.
【在 r*****t 的大作中提到】
: 蓝圆 大牛出山了
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p*********n
发帖数: 556 | 15 I think you are right. Market is fairly efficient most of the time.
actual
sense.
【在 b******n 的大作中提到】
: forward PE depends on the incoming earning for next year.
: PE (13) itself gives pessimistic or uncertain attitude of investor, isnt
: that true? Plus how reliable those analyst estimates are?
: An example: in May 2009, the earning estimates for past Q is 9$, the actual
: now is close 20. Forward PE (based on the esitmate at that moment) is over
: 20.
: I may rathe believe investors are more accurate than analysts in this sense.
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p****a
发帖数: 4829 | 16 You have your point. However, even in the worst scenario and we do have a
double dip recession, I think 2010 SP500 earning will be at least $75 per
share which corresponds to about 14.4 PE as of today's SPX close. I do not
consider it is cheap enough, but obviously not expensive at all.
actual
over
sense.
【在 b******n 的大作中提到】
: forward PE depends on the incoming earning for next year.
: PE (13) itself gives pessimistic or uncertain attitude of investor, isnt
: that true? Plus how reliable those analyst estimates are?
: An example: in May 2009, the earning estimates for past Q is 9$, the actual
: now is close 20. Forward PE (based on the esitmate at that moment) is over
: 20.
: I may rathe believe investors are more accurate than analysts in this sense.
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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 17 you have a strong poit from a long term investment point of view. shor
t term wise, a bad market sentiment can easily send markets to 2 or 3 notche
s below the "fair multiple".
【在 p****a 的大作中提到】
: You have your point. However, even in the worst scenario and we do have a
: double dip recession, I think 2010 SP500 earning will be at least $75 per
: share which corresponds to about 14.4 PE as of today's SPX close. I do not
: consider it is cheap enough, but obviously not expensive at all.
:
: actual
: over
: sense.
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