G**Y
发帖数: 33224 | 1 All Rights Reserved
Nikon DSLR D5100 ’s price dropped from $800 to $730 in four months, at this
rate, assuming an exponential decay in price, its price will reach $400 in
20 months (this is, of course, a rough estimate).
I (gu)estimate that the price of a consumer level camera body has a half
life of about two years. The prices of pro level bodies have longer half
lives of three to five years.
What does this tell us? It can help us decide shall we buy the camera now or
wait a little longer?
If the price has a half life of 2 years (consumer level bodies), then we
expect the price to decrease by 10% approximately every 4 months, or the
price will decrease 2.8% each month.
If the price has a half life of 5 years (pro bodies), then we expect the
price to decrease by 10% approximately every 9 months! The price will drop
just over 1% each month!
For example, the current price of D3S is approximately $5000, if I am
willing to spend $2500, I may be able to afford a Nikon D3S in 5 years (it
is possible that it will be discontinued long before that time or I may get
it earlier if I consider second-hand market). If I just want to wait for one
year, I expect the price to be around $4200 by then: if I saw that price
before that time, it is probably a good deal (e.g., this may happen around
Thanksgiving or Christmas)! | e****t
发帖数: 17914 | | G********d
发帖数: 10250 | 3 有啥聚变的？
this
in
or
【在 G**Y 的大作中提到】
: All Rights Reserved
: Nikon DSLR D5100 ’s price dropped from $800 to $730 in four months, at this
: rate, assuming an exponential decay in price, its price will reach $400 in
: 20 months (this is, of course, a rough estimate).
: I (gu)estimate that the price of a consumer level camera body has a half
: life of about two years. The prices of pro level bodies have longer half
: lives of three to five years.
: What does this tell us? It can help us decide shall we buy the camera now or
: wait a little longer?
: If the price has a half life of 2 years (consumer level bodies), then we
| m****7
发帖数: 14685 | 4 now im sure you are a professor | r***v
发帖数: 12658 | 5 辛苦了
this
in
or
【在 G**Y 的大作中提到】
: All Rights Reserved
: Nikon DSLR D5100 ’s price dropped from $800 to $730 in four months, at this
: rate, assuming an exponential decay in price, its price will reach $400 in
: 20 months (this is, of course, a rough estimate).
: I (gu)estimate that the price of a consumer level camera body has a half
: life of about two years. The prices of pro level bodies have longer half
: lives of three to five years.
: What does this tell us? It can help us decide shall we buy the camera now or
: wait a little longer?
: If the price has a half life of 2 years (consumer level bodies), then we
| G**Y
发帖数: 33224 | 6 关键要日积月累，
这个半衰期我几年前就估算了一下，
不过当时没记下了。
前几天又重新琢磨了一下，
多浪费了的一倍的时间。
【在 r***v 的大作中提到】
: 辛苦了
:
: this
: in
: or
| r***v
发帖数: 12658 | 7 自用的算那么清楚干嘛。。。
【在 G**Y 的大作中提到】
: 关键要日积月累，
: 这个半衰期我几年前就估算了一下，
: 不过当时没记下了。
: 前几天又重新琢磨了一下，
: 多浪费了的一倍的时间。
| G**Y
发帖数: 33224 | 8 呵呵。每次升级机器之前都琢磨，要不要再等等。
对这个降价速度有了大概体会以后的结论就是：单从价钱看，如果没有大的折扣，早买
晚买没区别。（画外音，早买，早买，早买。。。）
【在 r***v 的大作中提到】
: 自用的算那么清楚干嘛。。。
| w*****e
发帖数: 2419 | 9 不知道算不算反例，D90的MSRP 899，现在能450买到？ | f*****d
发帖数: 2726 | 10 牛！如果能考虑到通货膨胀率就更好了。:-)
this
in
or
【在 G**Y 的大作中提到】
: All Rights Reserved
: Nikon DSLR D5100 ’s price dropped from $800 to $730 in four months, at this
: rate, assuming an exponential decay in price, its price will reach $400 in
: 20 months (this is, of course, a rough estimate).
: I (gu)estimate that the price of a consumer level camera body has a half
: life of about two years. The prices of pro level bodies have longer half
: lives of three to five years.
: What does this tell us? It can help us decide shall we buy the camera now or
: wait a little longer?
: If the price has a half life of 2 years (consumer level bodies), then we
| i******t
发帖数: 22541 | 11 先顶叫兽 再看
this
in
or
【在 G**Y 的大作中提到】
: All Rights Reserved
: Nikon DSLR D5100 ’s price dropped from $800 to $730 in four months, at this
: rate, assuming an exponential decay in price, its price will reach $400 in
: 20 months (this is, of course, a rough estimate).
: I (gu)estimate that the price of a consumer level camera body has a half
: life of about two years. The prices of pro level bodies have longer half
: lives of three to five years.
: What does this tell us? It can help us decide shall we buy the camera now or
: wait a little longer?
: If the price has a half life of 2 years (consumer level bodies), then we
| j********e
发帖数: 1187 | | G**Y
发帖数: 33224 | 13 市场价降的可能没那么快，
大家心里能接受的价位差不多是那样吧。
比如D5000原价660？现在330不知道有没有人愿意买了。
【在 j********e 的大作中提到】
: 入门的半衰期才2年，这个，太短了点吧。
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