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发帖数: 22479 | 1 崩盘在即？周六以来，已有至少337名委内瑞拉军人和警察逃到邻国！
http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/world/military-desertion-of-maduro-slow-but-hopes-high/article/544134
Military desertion of Maduro slow but hopes high
The more than 300 soldiers to have deserted Venezuela President Nicolas
Maduro since Saturday may be only a drop in the ocean but little by little
the foundations of the socialist regime are coming apart, analysts say.
Emboldened by opposition leader Juan Guaido's attempts to force in
humanitarian aid through the borders with Colombia and Brazil, hundreds of
military personnel took the chance to flee a country wracked by poverty and
recession.
Some 326 members of the military and police crossed into Colombia with
another seven heading to Brazil to get away from the chronic shortages of
food and medicine that have made daily life a struggle for millions.
That may sound like a small number among the 365,000 members of the armed
forces and almost two million civilian militia, but analyst Luis Salamanca
says a drip can quickly turn into a flood.
"Maduro's military power is subject to that same erosive dynamic that his
popular support suffered from," Salamanca told AFP.
"The desertions are part of a process of attrition, an undermining of the
foundations."
The military is Maduro's most potent backer, which is why Guaido, recognized
as Venezuela's interim president by 50 countries, is so keen to turn their
heads.
He's even offered an amnesty to anyone turning their back on Maduro.
Although Guaido's efforts to bring in humanitarian aid, as he'd promised to
do on Saturday, floundered against a blockade by a determined military that
remains loyal to Maduro, he did score some smaller victories.
The initial trickle of defecting soldiers has increased exponentially, while
Guaido managed to break his own government-imposed travel ban and head to
Colombia thanks to help, he said, from members of the armed forces.
"It's a process that you don't see often, and that people don't much like
because it's slow, but it can accelerate when the military and civilians see
that the government could fall apart," added Salamanca.
Guaido's main backer, the United States, has ramped up the pressure on the
regime with sanctions against top officials, and the promise to exempt those
who recognize Guaido as their true leader.
- Military enrichment -
A Colombian police officer shows the identity documents of a Venezuelan
soldier who deserted
A Colombian police officer shows the identity documents of a Venezuelan
soldier who deserted
Raul ARBOLEDA, AFP
The problem is that the military is firmly entrenched in the echelons of
power and wealth.
Of Venezuela's 32 ministries, nine are in the hands of the military
including strategic portfolios such as defense, interior, agriculture, food
and the state oil company PDVSA -- the country's beating heart that is
responsible for 96 percent of its revenue.
As Maduro's unpopularity increased, Venezuela's military top brass found
itself in control of a state bank, television, construction, mining and gas
companies.
So far, only lower or medium level military personnel have deserted, the
high command remains steadfast in support of Maduro.
"The desertion of the rank and file isn't going to break Maduro's system by
itself," Christopher Sabatini, professor of international relations at
Columbia University, told AFP.
"They need to move onto the next level: admirals, captains, colonels and
generals."
Desertions, though, make it difficult for the "security apparatus to defend
strategic areas," said Diego Moya-Ocampos, from London-based global
information provider, IHS Markit.
The cracks haven't led to decisive shifts in the power balance, but they
have become more visible.
Some 180 military personnel were arrested in 2018, charged with conspiracy,
according to the non-governmental organization Control Ciudadano.
Two generals were amongst those arrested over an alleged assassination
attempt on Maduro in August using explosives-laden drones.
- Pressure mounting -
A supporter of Venezuela's opposition leader Juan Guaido holds up a sign
from Colombia encour...
A supporter of Venezuela's opposition leader, Juan Guaido, holds up a sign
from Colombia encouraging soldiers to abandon President Nicolas Maduro and
cross the border
Luis ROBAYO, AFP
Add to that, 4,300 soldiers deserted the National Guard in 2018 and 10,000
have asked to be discharged since 2015, Control Ciudadano said.
"What is happening is the most convincing demonstration of the breaking down
of the armed forces' fundamental pillars," said military expert Sebastiana
Barraez.
"These are soldiers who can no longer resist the pressure, who are forced to
take part in actions, who reject their superiors."
Last month, 27 soldiers rebelled two days before Guaido proclaimed himself
acting president.
Some posted videos to social media complaining about their barracks
conditions.
Carlos Eduardo Zapata, a sergeant who defected to Brazil, spoke about the
conditions in barracks.
"There's no food, there are no mattresses, us National Guard sergeants are
sleeping on the floor," he said.
"We don't have enough to buy a liter (one quart) of milk for our children,
the children are skinny."
Rocio San Miguel, president of the Control Ciudadano rights group, said "
There's a lot of concern about the situation."
"This week there is expected to be an announcement about an increase in
armed forces salaries as an incentive to loyalty," she said.
However, she added, "the military abandonment of Maduro will continue and
only those compromised by serious human rights abuses will continue to
support him." |
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