s******r
发帖数: 5309 | 1 By Fred Hu
August 22 at 1:01 PM
Fred Hu is an economist and chairman of Primavera Capital Group, a China-
based global investment firm.
BEIJING -— After decades of deriding China as a lousy copycat, the United
States now fears China’s rapid rise as a technology powerhouse and sees it
as a major — even existential — threat to U.S. dominance. The Trump
administration has waged an escalating trade war against China under the
pretext of punishing Chinese transgressions such as forced technology
transfers, predatory licensing practices, cyber theft of intellectual
property and the state-sponsored acquisition of American tech companies.
“Made in China 2025,” a policy blueprint unveiled by Premier Li Keqiang in
2015 to develop Chinese technological capabilities in growth industries
such as artificial intelligence and robotics, has especially raised the ire
of Washington hawks. Indeed, it’s become the central target in the ongoing
trade war.
But much of the fear over China’s technological rise is unfounded.
Fundamentally, China is like most emerging economies around the world: still
trying hard to close the enormous technological gap with advanced economies
led by America.
China has undoubtedly made more progress than many of its developing peers
in that race. Its tech industries have grown at a faster pace and achieved a
global scale beyond those of most developing countries. In a broad range of
manufacturing sectors — notably consumer electronics, steel, ship building
, high-speed rail systems and solar panels — China has established itself
as the world’s leading producer. In areas such as consumer Internet and
financial technology, it has arguably overtaken even the United States and
now leads the rest of the world.
Yet China hawks such as Robert Lighthizer and Peter Navarro charge that
whatever progress China has made on the tech front is due to the country’s
blatant theft of U.S. technology. Considering the enormous investments China
has made in science and technology over recent decades, such claims do not
hold water.
China has devoted vast resources to research and development — $409 billion
in 2015 (21 percent of the global total), according to the U.S. National
Science Foundation. China’s investment in research and development grew
over 20 percent annually between 2000 and 2010 and almost 14 percent from
2010-2015. U.S. research and development hovered around 4 percent over the
same period. For a country with an average per capita income a mere one-
sixth of America’s, China’s research and development investments reflect a
real and sustained national commitment.
At the same time, China has vastly expanded and improved STEM education and
has one of the largest pools of STEM graduates in the world. The devotion of
significant resources to research and development and human capital has in
turn enabled China to reap some of the early fruits of innovation. China now
tops the world in new patent filings. As the first country to receive more
than 1 million patent applications in a single year — a record the World
Intellectual Property Organization said reflected “extraordinary” levels
of innovation — China accounts for almost 40 percent of the global total
and more than that of the United States, Japan and South Korea combined.
China has also significantly boosted venture capital investment, which
supports the commercialization of emerging technologies. While the United
States attracts the most investment worldwide (nearly $70 billion), venture
capital investment in China rose from approximately $3 billion in 2013 to $
34 billion in 2016, climbing from 5 percent to 27 percent of the global
share — the fastest increase of any economy. China’s start-up ecosystem is
both vast and vibrant; it has successfully incubated more tech unicorns
than any other country except the United States.
Too often, U.S. critics claim that Chinese industrial policies like Made in
China 2025 are behind the country’s ascendancy in tech. In fact, virtually
none of China’s leading tech firms, such as Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent, are
state-owned or meaningful beneficiaries of state support. They are all
founded and led by smart and risk-taking private entrepreneurs, just like
their Silicon Valley brethren. Tellingly, many Chinese tech start-ups have
received U.S. venture financing. And Chinese technology companies and
venture firms have made significant investments in U.S. start-ups. Sadly,
the virtuous two-way venture capital flows are now in jeopardy because of
Washington’s growing paranoia about China.
As impressive as China’s innovation and progress may be, however, it is
premature to declare that China has caught up with the U.S. tech industry.
Interventionist government bureaucracy, stodgy state-owned enterprises, a
rigid school system and — above all — harsh restrictions on individual
freedoms continue to stifle independent thinking and creativity and
constrain China from realizing its full innovation potential.
While China is well positioned to succeed in “strategic” industries such
as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and commercial aircraft due to its vast
pool of engineering talent and the size of its domestic market, so far it
has remained a laggard. China has failed to develop an indigenous chip
industry despite a state-led drive to do so, with tens of billions spent
over the past four decades.
Despite its status as the “world’s factory,” making everything from cell
phones and laptops to numerous other devices, China continues to import 90
percent of its chips from foreign countries, predominantly from the United
States. That is why the U.S. threat to cut off critical chip supply to ZTE,
a Chinese telecom equipment firm, has been dubbed the “Sputnik moment” in
China: a sober reminder of China’s continued weaknesses in critical
technologies.
While China has made spectacular progress on the tech front, the United
States remains the undisputed global leader in science and technology. The
United States holds most of the world’s leading research universities; it
deploys the highest amounts of both public and private funding in research
and development; attracts the most venture capital; awards the most advanced
degrees; provides the most advanced business, financial and information
services and is the largest producer in knowledge-intensive, high-tech
sectors, from pharmaceuticals to semiconductors.
The fear that China will displace the United States as the global tech
superpower is grossly exaggerated. Unfortunately, such paranoia dominates
the minds of protectionist U.S. politicians and China hawks and has already
amplified a destructive trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
For China’s part, its soul-searching is overdue. Beijing should resist the
prevalent yet ill-justified self-complacency and triumphalism that
contributed to the fear in Washington in the first place, and it should make
serious efforts to reform and open its domestic economy. Unless Beijing
amends its heavy-handed statist approach to economic development, China’s
potential as a leading nation in science and technology could be seriously
curtailed.
This was produced by The WorldPost, a partnership of the Berggruen Institute
and The Washington Post. | P**T
发帖数: 2274 | 2 米弟现在其实没啥明显的优势了，军工更是日薄西山
等到过几年土共的核动力航母服役后，大家更能够看清楚米弟正在被土共在每一个领域
超越，而且形势越来越明朗 | f******t
发帖数: 19544 | | s*******p
发帖数: 1291 | | f******t
发帖数: 19544 | 5 军事实力也看预期的，美帝小弟不好带了。
【在 P**T 的大作中提到】
: 米弟现在其实没啥明显的优势了，军工更是日薄西山
: 等到过几年土共的核动力航母服役后，大家更能够看清楚米弟正在被土共在每一个领域
: 超越，而且形势越来越明朗
| P**T
发帖数: 2274 | 6 没后军事作为后盾，神马米元冥煮猪油盟友都是过眼云烟
这个世界就是这么现实
【在 f******t 的大作中提到】
: 军事实力也看预期的，美帝小弟不好带了。
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