w*********g
发帖数: 30882 | 1 美元的国际储备货币地位还能维系多久？ (2013-10-13 20:52:13)
葡萄牙、西班牙、荷兰、法国、英国、美国各自货币作为国际储备货币的时间
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-13/chinas-official-press-
China's Official Press Agency Calls For New Reserve Currency, And New World
Order
by Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, 13 October 2013
We assume it is a coincidence that on the day in which we demonstrate China'
s relentless appetite for gold, driven by what we and many others believe is
the country's desire to have a call option on a gold-backed reserve
currency when the time comes, just posted in China's official press agency,
Xinhua, is an op-ed by writer Liu Chang in which he decries the "US fiscal
failure which warrants a de-Americanized world" and flatly states that the
world should consider a new reserve currency "that is to be created to
replace the dominant U.S. dollar, so that the international community could
permanently stay away from the spillover of the intensifying domestic
political turmoil in the United States."
Of course, if China were serious, and if the world were to voluntarily
engage in such a (r)evolutionary reserve currency transition, then all Magic
Money Tree theories that the only thing better than near infinite debt is
beyond infinite debt, would promptly be relegated to the historic dust heap
of idiotic theories where they belong.
Some of China's (which as a reminder is the single largest offshore holder
of US Treasury paper, and the second largest of all only second naturally to
the Federal Reserve whose $85 billion in monthly monetizing "flow" is what
is keeping rates from exploding higher) thoughts as captured in the Xinhua
Op-ed:
Reform of the world’s financial system should include the introduction of a
new internatonal reserve currency to replace the U.S. dollar
The international community could thus permanently stay away from the
spillover of intensifying domestic political turmoil in the U.S.
Fiscal impasse in the U.S. is a good time for “befuddled world” to start
considering building a “de-Americanized world”
Impasse has left many nations’ dollar assets in jeopardy and the
international community agonized
Other cornerstones should be laid to underpin a de-Americanized world,
including respect for sovereignty, recognizing authority of UN in handling
global hotspot issues and giving developing and emerging market economies
more say in major international financial institutions
Purpose of such changes is not to “completely toss the United States aside,
” rather to encourage Washington to play a much more constructive role in
addressing global affairs
Of course, if and when the day comes that the USD is no longer the reserve
currency, kiss America's superpower, or any power, status, which is now
based purely on the USD's reserve currency status, and the ability to fund
half the US budget deficit with debt promptly monetized by the Fed, goodbye.
Finally, as a reminder...
From Xinhua:
U.S. fiscal failure warrants a de-Americanized world
As U.S. politicians of both political parties are still shuffling back and
forth between the White House and the Capitol Hill without striking a viable
deal to bring normality to the body politic they brag about, it is perhaps
a good time for the befuddled world to start considering building a de-
Americanized world.
Emerging from the bloodshed of the Second World War as the world's most
powerful nation, the United States has since then been trying to build a
global empire by imposing a postwar world order, fueling recovery in Europe,
and encouraging regime-change in nations that it deems hardly Washington-
friendly.
With its seemingly unrivaled economic and military might, the United States
has declared that it has vital national interests to protect in nearly every
corner of the globe, and been habituated to meddling in the business of
other countries and regions far away from its shores.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government has gone to all lengths to appear before the
world as the one that claims the moral high ground, yet covertly doing
things that are as audacious as torturing prisoners of war, slaying
civilians in drone attacks, and spying on world leaders.
Under what is known as the Pax-Americana, we fail to see a world where the
United States is helping to defuse violence and conflicts, reduce poor and
displaced population, and bring about real, lasting peace.
Moreover, instead of honoring its duties as a responsible leading power, a
self-serving Washington has abused its superpower status and introduced even
more chaos into the world by shifting financial risks overseas, instigating
regional tensions amid territorial disputes, and fighting unwarranted wars
under the cover of outright lies.
As a result, the world is still crawling its way out of an economic disaster
thanks to the voracious Wall Street elites, while bombings and killings
have become virtually daily routines in Iraq years after Washington claimed
it has liberated its people from tyrannical rule.
Most recently, the cyclical stagnation in Washington for a viable bipartisan
solution over a federal budget and an approval for raising debt ceiling has
again left many nations' tremendous dollar assets in jeopardy and the
international community highly agonized.
Such alarming days when the destinies of others are in the hands of a
hypocritical nation have to be terminated, and a new world order should be
put in place, according to which all nations, big or small, poor or rich,
can have their key interests respected and protected on an equal footing.
To that end, several corner stones should be laid to underpin a de-
Americanized world.
For starters, all nations need to hew to the basic principles of the
international law, including respect for sovereignty, and keeping hands off
domestic affairs of others.
Furthermore, the authority of the United Nations in handling global hotspot
issues has to be recognized. That means no one has the right to wage any
form of military action against others without a UN mandate.
Apart from that, the world's financial system also has to embrace some
substantial reforms.
The developing and emerging market economies need to have more say in major
international financial institutions including the World Bank and the
International Monetary Fund, so that they could better reflect the
transformations of the global economic and political landscape.
What may also be included as a key part of an effective reform is the
introduction of a new international reserve currency that is to be created
to replace the dominant U.S. dollar, so that the international community
could permanently stay away from the spillover of the intensifying domestic
political turmoil in the United States.
Of course, the purpose of promoting these changes is not to completely toss
the United States aside, which is also impossible. Rather, it is to
encourage Washington to play a much more constructive role in addressing
global affairs.
And among all options, it is suggested that the beltway politicians first
begin with ending the pernicious impasse.
http://mises.org/daily/6556/How-Much-Longer-Will-the-Dollar-be-
How Much Longer Will the Dollar be the Reserve Currency?
by Patrick Barron, The Ludwig von Mises Institute, 12 October 2013
We use the term “reserve currency” when referring to the common use of the
dollar by other countries when settling their international trade accounts.
For example, if Canada buys goods from China, it may pay China in US
dollars rather than Canadian dollars, and vice versa. However, the
foundation from which the term originated no longer exists, and today the
dollar is called a “reserve currency” simply because foreign countries
hold it in great quantity to facilitate trade.
The first reserve currency was the British pound sterling. Because the pound
was “good as gold,” many countries found it more convenient to hold
pounds rather than gold itself during the age of the gold standard. The
world’s great trading nations settled their trade in gold, but they might
hold pounds rather than gold, with the confidence that the Bank of England
would hand over the gold at a fixed exchange rate upon presentment. Toward
the end of World War II the US dollar was given this status by international
treaty following the Bretton Woods Agreement. The International Monetary
Fund (IMF) was formed with the express purpose of monitoring the Federal
Reserve’s commitment to Bretton Woods by ensuring that the Fed did not
inflate the dollar and stood ready to exchange dollars for gold at $35 per
ounce. Thusly, countries had confidence that their dollars held for trading
purposes were as “good as gold,” as had been the Pound Sterling at one
time.
However, the Fed did not maintain its commitment to the Bretton Woods
Agreement and the IMF did not attempt to force it to hold enough gold to
honor all its outstanding currency in gold at $35 per ounce. The Fed was
called to account in the late 1960s, first by France and then by others,
until its gold reserves were so low that it had no choice but to revalue the
dollar at some higher exchange rate or abrogate its responsibilities to
honor dollars for gold entirely. To it everlasting shame, the US chose the
latter and “went off the gold standard” in September 1971.
Nevertheless, the dollar was still held by the great trading nations,
because it still performed the useful function of settling international
trading accounts. There was no other currency that could match the dollar,
despite the fact that it was “delinked” from gold.
There are two characteristics of a currency that make it useful in
international trade: one, it is issued by a large trading nation itself, and
, two, the currency holds its value vis-à-vis other commodities over time.
These two factors create a demand for holding a currency in reserve.
Although the dollar was being inflated by the Fed, thusly losing its value
vis-à-vis other commodities over time, there was no real competition. The
German Deutsche mark held its value better, but German trade was a fraction
of US trade, meaning that holders of marks would find less to buy in Germany
than holders of dollars would find in the US. So demand for the mark was
lower than demand for the dollar. Of course, psychological factors entered
the demand for dollars, too, since the US was seen as the military protector
of all the Western nations against the communist countries for much of the
post-war period.
Today we are seeing the beginnings of a change. The Fed has been inflating
the dollar massively, reducing its purchasing power in relation to other
commodities, causing many of the world’s great trading nations to use other
monies upon occasion. I have it on good authority, for example, that DuPont
settles many of its international accounts in Chinese yuan and European
euros. There may be other currencies that are in demand for trade settlement
by other international companies as well. In spite of all this, one factor
that has helped the dollar retain its reserve currency demand is that the
other currencies have been inflated, too. For example, Japan has inflated
the yen to a greater extent than the dollar in its foolish attempt to revive
its stagnant economy by cheapening its currency. So the monetary
destruction disease is not limited to the US alone.
The dollar is very susceptible to losing its vaunted reserve currency
position by the first major trading country that stops inflating its
currency. There is evidence that China understands what is at stake; it has
increased its gold holdings and has instituted controls to prevent gold from
leaving China. Should the world’s second largest economy and one of the
world’s greatest trading nations tie its currency to gold, demand for the
yuan would increase and demand for the dollar would decrease. In practical
terms this means that the world’s great trading nations would reduce their
holdings of dollars, and dollars held overseas would flow back into the US
economy, causing prices to increase. How much would they increase? It is
hard to say, but keep in mind that there is an equal amount of dollars held
outside the US as inside the US.
President Obama’s imminent appointment of career bureaucrat Janet Yellen as
Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board is evidence that the US policy of
continuing to cheapen the dollar via Quantitative Easing will continue. Her
appointment increases the likelihood that demand for dollars will decline
even further, raising the likelihood of much higher prices in America as
demand by trading nations to hold other currencies as reserves for trade
settlement increase. Perhaps only such non-coercive pressure from a
sovereign country like China can wake up the Fed to the consequences of its
actions and force it to end its Quantitative Easing policy. | x******g
发帖数: 33885 | 2 as soon as 中国开始买黄金，不买美债。
World
China'
is
【在 w*********g 的大作中提到】
: 美元的国际储备货币地位还能维系多久？ (2013-10-13 20:52:13)
: 葡萄牙、西班牙、荷兰、法国、英国、美国各自货币作为国际储备货币的时间
: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-13/chinas-official-press-
: China's Official Press Agency Calls For New Reserve Currency, And New World
: Order
: by Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, 13 October 2013
: We assume it is a coincidence that on the day in which we demonstrate China'
: s relentless appetite for gold, driven by what we and many others believe is
: the country's desire to have a call option on a gold-backed reserve
: currency when the time comes, just posted in China's official press agency,
| w*********g
发帖数: 30882 | 3
这不是最关键的，关键的是脱离美元结算，依靠双边外汇互换和固定物价来取代美元。
【在 x******g 的大作中提到】
: as soon as 中国开始买黄金，不买美债。
:
: World
: China'
: is
| s********i
发帖数: 17328 | | x******g
发帖数: 33885 | 5 http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Military/40423573.html
【在 w*********g 的大作中提到】
:
: 这不是最关键的，关键的是脱离美元结算，依靠双边外汇互换和固定物价来取代美元。
|
|
