w*********g
发帖数: 30882 | 1 美国的房市即将迎来再次的大幅下跌 2012-04-04 21:33:47
【古风按】古风准确地预见了现在发生的状况。请阅读下面
的资讯，早做准备，少受损失。同时请记住：当美国国内的
smart money不入市而国外的傻钱开始接盘的时候，这个
市场已经接近崩盘的边缘了。
请继续阅读下面的博文：
古风解读《股市崩盘五部曲》
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201204/204.html
古风解读2012年1月份美国的房市
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201202/27828.html
古风再次解读美国房市
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201203/2752.html
古风解读最新的美国新屋开工图
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201203/18691.html
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/second-foreclosure-tsunami-coming
The Second Foreclosure Tsunami Is Coming, And Is About To Kill Any Hopes Of
A "Housing Bottom"
by Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, 04 April 2012
In what appears to be surprising news for some, Reuters has an article
titled "Americans brace for next foreclosure wave" whose key premise is that
"a painful part two of the [housing] slump looks set to unfold: Many more U
.S. homeowners face the prospect of losing their homes this year as banks
pick up the pace of foreclosures." Thank the robosettlement, where in
exchange for a few wrist slaps, contract law was thoroughly trampled by
America's attorneys general, but far more importantly to the country's crony
capitalist system, the foreclosure pipeline was once again unclogged, and
whether one does or does not have a legal title on a given house, the banks
are now fully in their right to foreclose on it. What this means also is
that America's record shadow housing inventory, which is far greater than
any fabricated number the NAR reports on a monthly basis, is about to get
unleashed on buyers, shifting the supply curve much further to the right, as
up to 9 million new properties slowly but surely appear on the market. And
while many will no longer be able to live mortgage free, forcing them to go
out and rent (and no longer be able to afford incremental iGizmos), it also
means that the prevalent price of homes is about to take another major
tumble, making buffoons out of all those who, once again, called for a
housing bottom in early 2012. Here's the simply math: there will be no
housing bottom until the 9 million excess homes clear. Period. Until then it
is a buyer's market, even if said buyer is unable to obtain bank financing,
as ultimately it will be the seller who is forced to monetize (or vacate if
underwater) their home in a world of ever diminishing cashflows. The fear
of the supply onslaught will only make the dumpage that much faster.
As a reminder, this is what America's recover shadow inventory looked like
recently (read more here):
For those curious how much more foreclosed properties are about to hit the
market, we have the answer. Courtesy of RealtyTrac we know how many homes
were foreclosed upon in the period until November 2010, when robosigning
became a prevalent, if short-lived issue, or roughly 330,000 a month. In the
aftermath, this average has dropped to 227,000 a month: a roughly 100,000
difference in less foreclosures each month! Which means that in the deferred
amount of foreclosures, over and above the already endogenous deterioration
in home prices and declining household income, means that there is at least
1.6 million in homes that are just waiting for a green light to be
foreclosed upon, sending shadow inventory in the double digit millions, and
unleashing a selling wave unlike any seen before. Behold the deffered
foreclosures in all their glory:
Translation: Just like John Paulson lost billions on his massively wrong way
bets that housing would soar (ironically, after getting the move lower
correct), so Goldman's recent bet that properties will rebound is about to
cost the firm dearly.
Because at the end of the day, it is all about supply and demand, or, said
otherwise, money.
Reuters explains further:
"We are right back where we were two years ago. I would put money on 2012
being a bigger year for foreclosures than 2010," said Mark Seifert,
executive director of Empowering & Strengthening Ohio's People (ESOP), a
counseling group with 10 offices in Ohio.
"Last year was an anomaly, and not in a good way," he said.
In 2011, the "robo-signing" scandal, in which foreclosure documents were
signed without properly reviewing individual cases, prompted banks to hold
back on new foreclosures pending a settlement.
Five major banks eventually struck that settlement with 49 U.S. states in
February. Signs are growing the pace of foreclosures is picking up again,
something housing experts predict will again weigh on home prices before any
sustained recovery can occur.
Mortgage servicing provider Lender Processing Services reported in early
March that U.S. foreclosure starts jumped 28 percent in January.
Well, no. LPS which is going through legal troubles of its own,
unfortunately, is very much, less than credible. For the only real source on
foreclosure data, we go to RealtyTrac, where we find that February
foreclosures hit 206,900, the second lowest in many years, and higher only
than December 2011's period low 205,000 (see chart above). But while there
is no need to fabricate data, foreclosures will eventually come, as banks,
first slowly, then very, very fast, start sending out foreclosure notices.
What happens next will be entire neighborhoods with "Foreclosure" signs in
front of the houses, doing miracles to prevailing home prices.
A January report by the Neighborhood Economic Development Advocacy Project
in New York found that in the first half of 2011 the number of 90-day pre-
foreclosure notices in New York City outnumbered court foreclosure actions
by a ratio of 14 to one, indicating that while proceedings were initiated
against many homeowners, they were left incomplete.
"Now the banks have a settlement, foreclosure numbers for 2012 are going to
be high," said NEDAP co-director Josh Zinner.
A recent survey by the California Reinvestment Coalition, an umbrella group
of nearly 300 non-profit groups in the state, of member agencies found 75
percent of respondents expected increased demand for their foreclosure
prevention services in 2012 but more than a third had to scale back services
because of funding cuts.
"Funding is a major concern given what our members expect for this year,"
said associate director Kevin Stein.
Needless to say, the return of reality, i.e., when one actually has to pay
for living somewhere, instead of living 5 years without making a mortgage
payment like the Ritters, means a return of ever louder calls for socialist
debt principal reduction. What is odd is that nobody seems to care:
certainly not the millions of other hard working Americans who would end up
footing the bill.
All this has non-profits intensifying calls for the Federal Housing Finance
Agency to drop its opposition to allowing the government-backed mortgage
giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac it regulates to reduce principal for
underwater homeowners.
Principal reduction involves reducing the amount borrowers owe in order to
make a loan modification affordable for struggling homeowners. Republicans
and the FHFA oppose principal reduction because of the risk of "moral hazard
"- that homeowners who do not need help will seek to abuse largesse and have
their mortgages reduced too.
"Until banks engage in meaningful principal reduction as a matter of course,
" ESOP's Seifert said after a recent protest at a Chase branch in Cleveland,
"this crisis will not end."
Well then it won't. Because since every bank asset is another bank's
liability, unless the government pulls a GSE, and funds the wholesale
mortgage reduction (call it the "final solution" of ubiquitous and
unquestioned socialism), banks will not do this. And while this next bank
bailout is only years (at most) away, in the meantime we will see banks do
just what they always do: foreclose once again, and release the pent up
vacant homes into the market. Which for anyone who has taken Econ 101 means
prices are about to take yet another dive lower, and the entire housing
recovery plan can be scrapped. As to what it means for the Fed's plans for
future easing, well... we believe our readers are smart enough to figure
this out on their own.
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/04/us-foreclosure-idUSBR
Americans brace for next foreclosure wave
by Nick Carey, Reuters, 04 April 2012
GARFIELD HEIGHTS, Ohio (Reuters) - Half a decade into the deepest U.S.
housing crisis since the 1930s, many Americans are hoping the crisis is
finally nearing its end. House sales are picking up across most of the
country, the plunge in prices is slowing and attempts by lenders to claim
back properties from struggling borrowers dropped by more than a third in
2011, hitting a four-year low.
But a painful part two of the slump looks set to unfold: Many more U.S.
homeowners face the prospect of losing their homes this year as banks pick
up the pace of foreclosures.
"We are right back where we were two years ago. I would put money on 2012
being a bigger year for foreclosures than 2010," said Mark Seifert,
executive director of Empowering & Strengthening Ohio's People (ESOP), a
counseling group with 10 offices in Ohio.
"Last year was an anomaly, and not in a good way," he said.
In 2011, the "robo-signing" scandal, in which foreclosure documents were
signed without properly reviewing individual cases, prompted banks to hold
back on new foreclosures pending a settlement.
Five major banks eventually struck that settlement with 49 U.S. states in
February. Signs are growing the pace of foreclosures is picking up again,
something housing experts predict will again weigh on home prices before any
sustained recovery can occur.
Mortgage servicing provider Lender Processing Services reported in early
March that U.S. foreclosure starts jumped 28 percent in January.
More conclusive national data is not yet available. But watchdog group,
4closurefraud.org which helped uncover the "robo-signing" scandal, says it
has turned up evidence of a large rise in new foreclosures between March 1
and 24 by three big banks in Palm Beach County in Florida, one of the states
hit hardest by the housing crash.
Although foreclosure starts were 50 percent or more lower than for the same
period in 2010, those begun by Deutsche Bank were up 47 percent from 2011.
Those of Wells Fargo's rose 68 percent and Bank of America's, including BAC
Home Loans Servicing, jumped nearly seven-fold -- 251 starts versus 37 in
the same period in 2011. Bank of America said it does not comment on data
provided by other sources. Wells Fargo and Deutsche Bank did not comment.
Housing experts say localized warning signs of a new wave of foreclosure are
likely to be replicated across much of the United States.
Online foreclosure marketplace RealtyTrac estimated that while foreclosures
dropped slightly nationwide in February from January and from February 2011,
they rose in 21 states and jumped sharply in cities like Tampa (64 percent)
, Chicago (43 percent) and Miami (53 percent).
RealtyTrac CEO Brandon Moore said the "numbers point to a gradually rising
foreclosure tide as some of the barriers that have been holding back
foreclosures are removed."
One big difference to the early years of the housing crisis, which was
dominated by Americans saddled with the most toxic subprime products -- with
high interest rates where banks asked for no money down or no proof of
income -- is that today it's mostly Americans with ordinary mortgages whose
ability to meet payment have been hit by the hard economic times.
"The subprime stuff is long gone," said Michael Redman, founder of
4closurefraud.org. "Now the folks being affected are hardworking, everyday
Americans struggling because of the economy."
"HARD TO CATCH UP"
Until December 2010, Daniel Burns, 52, had spent his working life in the
trucking industry as a long-haul driver and manager. When daily loads at the
small family business where he worked tailed off, he lost his job.
Unable to cover his mortgage, Burns received a grant from a government fund
using money repaid from the 2008 bank bailout. That grant is due to expire
in early 2013 and Burns is holding out on hopeful comments from his former
employer that he might get his job back if the economy recovers.
"If things don't pick up, I will be out on the street," he said, staring
from his living room window at two abandoned houses over the road in the
middle-class Cleveland suburb of Garfield Heights, the noise of traffic from
a nearby Interstate highway filling the street.
Underscoring the uncertainty of his situation, Burns' cell phone rings and a
pre-recorded message announces that his unemployment benefits are due to be
cut off in April.
A bit further up the shore of Lake Erie, Cristal Fell, who works night
shifts entering data for a trucking company in Toledo, has fallen behind on
her mortgage a second time because her ex-husband lost his job and her
overtime was cut.
"Once you get behind it's so hard to catch up," she said.
Fell, a mother of four, hopes the economy will gather enough speed to help
her avoid any risk of losing her home. Her ex-husband has found a new job
and she is getting more overtime, so she hopes she can catch up on her
mortgage by the fall.
Burns and Fell are the new face of the U.S. housing crisis: Middle class,
suburban or rural with a conventional 30-year fixed mortgage at a reasonable
interest rate, but unemployed or underemployed. Although the national
unemployment rate has fallen to 8.3 percent from its peak of 10 percent in
October 2009, nearly 13 million Americans remain jobless, meaning many are
struggling to keep up with their mortgage payments.
Real estate company Zillow Inc says more than one in four American
homeowners were "under water" or owed more than their homes were worth in
the fourth quarter of 2011. The crisis has wiped out some $7 trillion in U.S
. household wealth.
"We're seeing more people coming through who have good loans with reasonable
interest rates," said Ed Jacob, executive director of non-profit lender
Neighborhood Housing Services of Chicago Inc, which provides foreclosure
counseling. "But in many households only one person works now instead of two
, or they had their hours cut."
"The answer to the housing crisis now is job creation."
EARLY SIGNS OF UPTICK?
Zillow expects the resurgence in foreclosures this year, combined with
excess inventory of unsold, bank-owned homes will contribute to a 3.7
percent national decline in prices before the market hits bottom in 2013 and
stays there until 2016.
"The hangover from this crisis will far outlast the party of the boom years,
" said Zillow chief economist Stan Humphries.
Getting through the remaining foreclosures and dealing with the resulting
flood of homes on the market in the wake of the bank settlement is a
necessary part of the healing process for the U.S. housing market, he added.
According to leading broker dealer Amherst Securities, some 9.5 million
homes are still at risk of default and in February it said it expected to
see the uptick in foreclosures start to hit in March and April.
There is other evidence that many of the foreclosures that did not happen in
2011 will happen this year.
A January report by the Neighborhood Economic Development Advocacy Project
in New York found that in the first half of 2011 the number of 90-day pre-
foreclosure notices in New York City outnumbered court foreclosure actions
by a ratio of 14 to one, indicating that while proceedings were initiated
against many homeowners, they were left incomplete.
"Now the banks have a settlement, foreclosure numbers for 2012 are going to
be high," said NEDAP co-director Josh Zinner.
A recent survey by the California Reinvestment Coalition, an umbrella group
of nearly 300 non-profit groups in the state, of member agencies found 75
percent of respondents expected increased demand for their foreclosure
prevention services in 2012 but more than a third had to scale back services
because of funding cuts.
"Funding is a major concern given what our members expect for this year,"
said associate director Kevin Stein.
All this has non-profits intensifying calls for the Federal Housing Finance
Agency to drop its opposition to allowing the government-backed mortgage
giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac it regulates to reduce principal for
underwater homeowners.
Principal reduction involves reducing the amount borrowers owe in order to
make a loan modification affordable for struggling homeowners. Republicans
and the FHFA oppose principal reduction because of the risk of "moral hazard
"- that homeowners who do not need help will seek to abuse largesse and have
their mortgages reduced too.
ESOP in Ohio engages in "hits" on Chase branches -- they say Chase is the
least accommodating major bank when it comes to working with struggling
homeowners -- where they try to hand letters to bank mangers calling on
chief executive Jamie Dimon to lobby FHFA head Edward DeMarco for principal
reductions. A Chase spokeswoman said the bank has made "extensive efforts"
to work with homeowners, helping 775,000 borrowers stay in their homes since
early 2009, avoiding foreclosure "more than twice as often as we have had
to foreclose." Housing groups like ESOP maintain, as they have throughout
the housing crisis, that unless the FHFA embraces widespread principal
reduction, many more under water borrowers face losing their homes.
"Until banks engage in meaningful principal reduction as a matter of course,
" ESOP's Seifert said after a recent protest at a Chase branch in Cleveland,
"this crisis will not end."
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http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57381408/banks-face-cris
Banks face crisis in bungled commercial mortgages
by Constantine von Hoffman, CBS News, 21 February 2012
The nation's banks are looking at a robo-signing problem with commercial
real estate which may dwarf the one for home mortgages, according to a new
study.
Research by Harbinger Analytics Group shows the widespread use of inaccurate
, fraudulent documents for land title underwriting of commercial real estate
financing. According to the report:
This fraud is accomplished through inaccurate and incomplete filings of
statutorily required records (commercial land title surveys detailing
physical boundaries, encumbrances, encroachments, etc.) on commercial
properties in California, many other western states and possibly throughout
most of the United States.
Analysts expect 2012 to be a record-setting year for commercial real estate
defaults. Last week delinquencies for office and retail loans hit their
highest-ever levels, according to Fitch Ratings. The value of all delinquent
commercial loans is now $57.7 billion, according to Trepp, LLC. Also, while
the national office vacancy rate has come down it is still very high: It
hit 17.6 percent in the fourth quarter, down from 18.5 percent a year
earlier, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.
The usual solution for defaults is for the mortgage owner to foreclose and
take ownership of the property. But, just as in the residential real estate
market, lenders' shoddy paperwork could make it difficult to prove ownership
. In the cases studied by Harbinger, the problems are because banks accepted
the work of land surveyors who "have committed actual and/or constructive
fraud by knowingly failing to conduct accurate boundary surveys and/or
failing to file the statutorily required documentation in public records."
Just as with residential real estate, commercial real estate mortgages were
bundled and re-sold by lenders as securities. Holders of those securities,
already reeling from the glut of empty office space, will be hit even harder
if it turns out they have no claim to the properties. They would likely sue
the lenders for falsely representing the properties. Mortgage holders in
these cases may also turn to their title insurance to cover any losses. It
is uncertain if the title insurance companies have the resources to
withstand massive claims on expensive commercial properties.
Two weeks ago the nation's five largest banks reached a settlement with
attorneys general from 49 states over illegal home foreclosure practices.
The banks still face billions of dollars in civil lawsuits around this. | M**********g
发帖数: 142 | 2 这个家伙在房地产底部的时候还说要大幅下跌,要害死人的.
【在 w*********g 的大作中提到】
: 美国的房市即将迎来再次的大幅下跌 2012-04-04 21:33:47
: 【古风按】古风准确地预见了现在发生的状况。请阅读下面
: 的资讯，早做准备，少受损失。同时请记住：当美国国内的
: smart money不入市而国外的傻钱开始接盘的时候，这个
: 市场已经接近崩盘的边缘了。
: 请继续阅读下面的博文：
: 古风解读《股市崩盘五部曲》
: http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201204/204.html
: 古风解读2012年1月份美国的房市
: http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201202/27828.html
| T*R
发帖数: 36302 | 3 嗯，都跌了好久了，S￥P从10月的1100点跌到现在1400点。 | f****m
发帖数: 7469 | 4 瞎扯把很多老美都在买房子，我们公司一个据说在VA屯了10个. 美国人动手比我们都早
。现在市场上很多都是美国投资者以现金收购抢房。外国人购房到底有多少？ | S*********r
发帖数: 5693 | 5 太好了，赶紧跌吧，我等着买呢。最近湾区的房子都抢疯了。 |
|
