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发帖数: 901 | 1 Between 300M to 313million, 10% of whom have no job. hard to tell.
WASHINGTON – Census surprise? The government provided new estimates Monday
showing the U.S. population grew to somewhere between roughly 306 million
and 313 million over the last decade, acknowledging uncertainty due to rapid
shifts in immigration.
The estimates, which are separate from the official 2010 census count, are
based on a review of birth and death records as well as calculations of new
immigrants as of April 1, 2010. Demographers say the range of numbers offers
a rough guide to the official 2010 results that will be used to apportion
House seats when they are released later this month.
"For the first time, we are providing a series of demographic analysis
estimates to more clearly demonstrate the uncertainty in these figures,"
said Census director Robert Groves.
The numbers show the nation's population ranged from 305.7 million to 307.4
million based on lower rates of immigration, which independent think-tanks
such as the Pew Hispanic Center have said dropped off sharply recently due
to the souring U.S. economy.
A mid-range estimate — which in previous census reports have typically come
within 1-2 percent of the final count — puts the number at 308.5 million.
Census estimates based on assumptions of higher levels of immigration place
the nation's population between 310 million and 312.7 million.
In 2000, the official census count was 281.4 million.
No breakdowns were provided Monday for states or local areas.
The estimates also indicate:
_Hispanics accounted for all the growth in the youth population in the last
decade. In 2000, Hispanics made up 17 percent of the U.S. population under
age 20. They now represent somewhere between 22 and 25 percent of that age
group.
_There were roughly 40.9 million to 41.7 million blacks in the U.S., based
on a tabulation that includes Hispanic blacks. That would put the share of
blacks at roughly 13 percent of the U.S. population.
_Without Hispanics, the number of young people in the U.S. would have
declined between 2000 and 2010. Based on the estimates, the non-Hispanic
youth population declined somewhere between 1.25 million and 2.9 million.
"The U.S. population is becoming more diverse from youngest to oldest and
Hispanics are the driving force behind this youth diversity," said Kenneth
Johnson, a sociology professor at the University of New Hampshire, who
reviewed the numbers.
Monday's middle estimate of the total U.S. population is a bit lower than an
earlier census calculation that put it at 309 million. That 309 million
estimate, or various versions of it, has been used by outside analysts to
project the distribution of House seats that show strong gains for
immigration states such as Florida, Arizona and Texas.
John Long, who was chief of the Census Bureau's population division during
the 2000 count, said that based on historical trends and decreased
immigration, the latest estimates point to a final 2010 census tally that is
"several million lower" than 309 million — with high variability in states
that tend to attract new immigrants.
He said the previous 309 million estimate is at least 1 million too high
because of methodology changes in how the number is calculated when cities
challenge the count. The estimates also may have failed to capture the most
recent trends in immigration — which included a sharp slowdown in illegal
immigrants — due to a time lag of more than one year in calculating the
numbers.
"Each decade, census results have a way of surprising us," Long said. "These
demographic analysis results indicate that the surprise may be in a
downward direction. Most states will find that their population counts will
be below what they expected."
The stakes are high. After state numbers are released later this month, the
Census Bureau will begin to release population and race breakdowns for more
local areas in February, triggering a process in which states gaining or
losing House seats will redraw political boundaries.
Current projections by Election Data Services indicate that a dozen
congressional seats affecting 18 states would change hands. They include
four seats for Texas, two for Florida and one each for Arizona, Georgia,
Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington.
New York and Ohio are projected to lose two seats apiece, while eight states
would lose single seats — Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts,
Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
Kimball Brace, president of Election Data Services, said given the
unpredictability in immigration suggested by Monday's estimates, Florida was
likely to be more on the edge in gaining a second House seat. Also, because
census estimates do not include U.S. military personnel and their families
living overseas, he said a state with higher shares of Army posts, such as
North Carolina, may prove to be an unexpected winner, as it was in 2000 when
it beat out Utah for the last seat.
The census estimates released Monday — known as Demographic Analysis —
have historically been used to assess the level of undercounts in the
decennial census, which disproportionately misses children and black men. In
recent censuses, they have also been used as one guidepost in the
government's decisions whether to statistically adjust the census for known
undercounts. Groves has ruled out making any adjustments in the 2010 census
for purposes of reapportionment and redistricting. |
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