m******t
发帖数: 165 | 1 我觉得投资版应该讨论一些长期趋势，短期的变动实在太复杂，而且投机的成分太多。
不是大牛无法预测。但长期趋势是相对简单的，是可能预测的。斑竹应给组织一些高手
研究一下。
比如人口老化是社会发展的一个必然趋势。人口老化是否与通货紧缩有关系？ |
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | |
m******t
发帖数: 165 | 3 我一直以为人口老化的一个经济后果是通货膨胀，因为更少的人生产，扶养比提高，商
品服务会短缺，另外，政府会不得不印钱加税来弥补福利支出的缺口。 但事实是在典
型的人口老化的国家日本，没有通货膨胀，而是20年的通货紧缩。
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
|
p********t
发帖数: 1219 | 4 Old people don't spend as much as they used to, while the productivity is
high enough for a developed country. It is different in China because the
old people spent much less before. Now they invest in the real estate market
heavily.
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】
: 我一直以为人口老化的一个经济后果是通货膨胀，因为更少的人生产，扶养比提高，商
: 品服务会短缺，另外，政府会不得不印钱加税来弥补福利支出的缺口。 但事实是在典
: 型的人口老化的国家日本，没有通货膨胀，而是20年的通货紧缩。
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 5
Japan could get away with it in the past two decades mostly b/c they have
huge savings to finance government debt and a strong production base to
back the Yen. Their savings are gone now and that massive debt cannot be
sustainable any more so they have to either default or print.
Note that US has neither savings nor strong production base while their
unfunded liability such as Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid are to
explode with baby boomers retiring, so get ready for US to go to hell in
t
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】
: 我一直以为人口老化的一个经济后果是通货膨胀，因为更少的人生产，扶养比提高，商
: 品服务会短缺，另外，政府会不得不印钱加税来弥补福利支出的缺口。 但事实是在典
: 型的人口老化的国家日本，没有通货膨胀，而是20年的通货紧缩。
|
m******t
发帖数: 165 | 6
still do not understand why deflation. Japan's government debit is also
printing money, right? most of US government's debit is also bought by
Americans.the only difference is some of US debit are purchased by
foreigners.
it is for sure that inflation can be prevented if the government wants by do
not printing extra money, but this is not same as printing money will
definitely introduce inflation.if there is deflation potential in economy
field, it can be deflation.
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: Japan could get away with it in the past two decades mostly b/c they have
: huge savings to finance government debt and a strong production base to
: back the Yen. Their savings are gone now and that massive debt cannot be
: sustainable any more so they have to either default or print.
: Note that US has neither savings nor strong production base while their
: unfunded liability such as Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid are to
: explode with baby boomers retiring, so get ready for US to go to hell in
: t
|
S***l
发帖数: 383 | 7 I remember you always call for hyperinflation here, why suddently deflation
now? Read some online ariticle last night that changed your mind?
China bought record number of Japan bonds recently. Yen is all time high
from 1987. And you are calling Japan either default or print???
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: Japan could get away with it in the past two decades mostly b/c they have
: huge savings to finance government debt and a strong production base to
: back the Yen. Their savings are gone now and that massive debt cannot be
: sustainable any more so they have to either default or print.
: Note that US has neither savings nor strong production base while their
: unfunded liability such as Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid are to
: explode with baby boomers retiring, so get ready for US to go to hell in
: t
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 8
deflation
I didn't change at all as print = inflate & print too much = hyperinflate.
And yes, Japan will have to either default or print. All paper currencies
are doomed to fail as politicians just cannot keep their hands off the
printing press.
【在 S***l 的大作中提到】
: I remember you always call for hyperinflation here, why suddently deflation
: now? Read some online ariticle last night that changed your mind?
: China bought record number of Japan bonds recently. Yen is all time high
: from 1987. And you are calling Japan either default or print???
|
c**********l
发帖数: 606 | 9 print != inflate. even after printing for 20 years, there is not sign of
inflation in japan.
japan prints, but won't default. yen is considered as safe heaven for a
reason. |
c**********l
发帖数: 606 | 10 in the long run you are right that all paper monies have been doomed to fail
. but it does not mean that it will default tomorrow, or in the next decade
. you could hold ur gold for 2 decades with -60% gain while everything else
appreciates 10-fold.
actually US is still extremely stable and militarily strong. there is NO
reason for US goverment to default their debt when they can just keep on
printing to pay for the debts. it will lead to hyperinflation eventually as you
pointed out, but th |
|
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 11 you still have not get it
gold is the hedge for deflation now
it is a hedge for inflation too, but silver is better
just look at the chart since late April
the market has been facing strong deflation pressure since then
take a look at how gold and silver behaved
dont assume the deflation will simply repeat 2008
yes, at that time, everything rushed to bonds
but this time, gold took its share as a hedge for deflation
as more people recognize it as money, not just a simple commodity
down the road,
【在 c**********l 的大作中提到】
: in the long run you are right that all paper monies have been doomed to fail
: . but it does not mean that it will default tomorrow, or in the next decade
: . you could hold ur gold for 2 decades with -60% gain while everything else
: appreciates 10-fold.
: actually US is still extremely stable and militarily strong. there is NO
: reason for US goverment to default their debt when they can just keep on
: printing to pay for the debts. it will lead to hyperinflation eventually as you
: pointed out, but th
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 12 http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GLD+Interactive#chart2:symbol=gld;range=ytd;compare=^gspc;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
just look this
the first 5 months, gold and SP were in the same boat
after that, gold looked like a short of the main market
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: you still have not get it
: gold is the hedge for deflation now
: it is a hedge for inflation too, but silver is better
: just look at the chart since late April
: the market has been facing strong deflation pressure since then
: take a look at how gold and silver behaved
: dont assume the deflation will simply repeat 2008
: yes, at that time, everything rushed to bonds
: but this time, gold took its share as a hedge for deflation
: as more people recognize it as money, not just a simple commodity
|
S***l
发帖数: 383 | 13 ever heard of velocity of money???
print != inflate.
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: deflation
: I didn't change at all as print = inflate & print too much = hyperinflate.
: And yes, Japan will have to either default or print. All paper currencies
: are doomed to fail as politicians just cannot keep their hands off the
: printing press.
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 14
This deflation / inflation thing can be explained by a quick analogy so
simple even Paul Krugman could understand it.
Imagine a stock's fair price is 10$/share but gets hyped to 40. Someone
jumps in right at the top only to see it plunging toward 35, 30, 25 ...
Is that deflation? No, that's just a fool deflating his wallet to send
money to whoever conned him at the top. He should have known better.
It becomes inflation when government jumps in declaring this fool is too
big to fail and then tri
【在 c**********l 的大作中提到】
: print != inflate. even after printing for 20 years, there is not sign of
: inflation in japan.
: japan prints, but won't default. yen is considered as safe heaven for a
: reason.
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 15
Just about every hyperinflation started from a debt induced deflation.
Government then fought it with some printing and some more until the
currency eventually failed and sent it right snap into a hyperinflation.
【在 S***l 的大作中提到】
: ever heard of velocity of money???
: print != inflate.
|
c**********l
发帖数: 606 | 16 what gold hedges here is instability and sign of inflation, not deflation.
a short term chart from april means absolutely nothing. gold has been
historically little correlated with stock market, which is beautiful and one
of the main reasons i hold gold.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: you still have not get it
: gold is the hedge for deflation now
: it is a hedge for inflation too, but silver is better
: just look at the chart since late April
: the market has been facing strong deflation pressure since then
: take a look at how gold and silver behaved
: dont assume the deflation will simply repeat 2008
: yes, at that time, everything rushed to bonds
: but this time, gold took its share as a hedge for deflation
: as more people recognize it as money, not just a simple commodity
|
c**********l
发帖数: 606 | 17 try to understand this, it is not hard:
inflation comes from printing money.
!=
printing money causes inflation.
only printing money is not sufficient. |
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 18 No hyperinflation as long as China/Japan continue to buy treasury.
US owns more debt per capta than Greece. But US have the guns. If
Uncle Sam can't finance, I see war.
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: Just about every hyperinflation started from a debt induced deflation.
: Government then fought it with some printing and some more until the
: currency eventually failed and sent it right snap into a hyperinflation.
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 19 why only gold was signaling inflation and all the others are fighting
deflation? gold must be in another world, lol
you can ignore the trend that gold is becoming a safe heaven due to people's
fear of a stock market crash. we will see how things evolve.
one
【在 c**********l 的大作中提到】
: what gold hedges here is instability and sign of inflation, not deflation.
: a short term chart from april means absolutely nothing. gold has been
: historically little correlated with stock market, which is beautiful and one
: of the main reasons i hold gold.
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 20 no hurry
you will get your velocity
with Obama, you will get it even sooner than you thought
see the chase's ads.
https://www.chase.com/ccp/index.jsp?pg_name=ccpmapp/smallbusiness/business_
banking/page/loanhire&MSC=IQ15785533
money will be rushing out of these banks' reserves faster than you thought
Yes we can!
【在 c**********l 的大作中提到】
: try to understand this, it is not hard:
: inflation comes from printing money.
: !=
: printing money causes inflation.
: only printing money is not sufficient.
|
|
|
c**********l
发帖数: 606 | 21 from the interest of a saver and creditor like you and me, should they print
more greenback? hell no!
from the interest of the US government, should they print money? absolutely
! why not?
being deeply affected by your emotion and political belives, tho, can not be
good for your investment. at least make sure that you understand the terms
inflation/deflation before acusing politicians. they may be doing the right
thing for their nation. |
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 22
Increasing money supply <==> inflation. Just because price falling in the
undesired, overpriced and oversupplied garbage assets aka real estates
doesn't meant it's a deflation.
【在 c**********l 的大作中提到】
: try to understand this, it is not hard:
: inflation comes from printing money.
: !=
: printing money causes inflation.
: only printing money is not sufficient.
|
he
发帖数: 2025 | 23 老美这里不是计划经济，美联储增加那点货币投放量就通膨了，还超级通膨?
而且流动性陷阱早就不是新鲜玩意了，日本折腾了二十年还陷在粪坑里，这里有篇最近
美联储的报告,
Limit of QE:
http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/business-
review/2010/q2/brq210_monetary-policy-in-a-liquidity-trap.pdf
本秃降息一路到0，或者0.25%(很低的水平),产生了新问题: 放贷的收益和风险不成比
例。钱到哪
里去? 国债，无风险有收益，this risk-free trade beats all,而且这个巨大的"床垫
"恰恰
是本秃不能戳破的。美联储增加多少货币投放量都没用，只要实质利率还是这么低，国
债就像黑洞一
样都给吸进去，货币不流通，信贷萎缩，实体经济继续完蛋。
数学上利率可以到0，但实际上在之前就有个临界点，从此之后再降利率会越来越鼓励
大家进国债躲
着，或者说跟降息刺激私营经济信贷的初衷南辕北辙。
资金一窝蜂跟进国债市场，大大砸低
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: Increasing money supply <==> inflation. Just because price falling in the
: undesired, overpriced and oversupplied garbage assets aka real estates
: doesn't meant it's a deflation.
|
he
发帖数: 2025 | 24 差点忘了，美联储当然能产生真正的通膨:
方案A: 通过各大银行发卡，每家一张，直接充值一百万，立刻通货膨胀就起来了。
方案B: 要是本秃觉得不过瘾，那就充值一个亿，哈哈，超级通膨不算难。
不管哪个方案，百万富翁们立刻嗝儿屁，千万富翁们半死不活，B方案连老保之流都一
起法克。
不过以史为鉴，1933年老美政府放任通缩发生，然后银行家们捞底捡便宜瓜分优质资产
，尽管25%人口
失业，但是政府/政治体制保存完整，并没有出现德国军国主义上台的后果。 |
