c****o
发帖数: 32446 | |
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 2
Don't hold cash. Buy some commodities.
【在 c****o 的大作中提到】
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 3 some suggestions?
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: Don't hold cash. Buy some commodities.
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 4 I like gold and silver in particular. They might be a little
bumpy now but in the long run will shoot up for sure.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: some suggestions?
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 5 发信人: starwood (四大伍德), 信区: Investment
标 题: Gold
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu May 7 23:40:03 2009), 转信
someone said that IMF was about to get concensus to sell huge amount
of gold. it's price might go to 700. anyone know about the rumor?
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
: I like gold and silver in particular. They might be a little
: bumpy now but in the long run will shoot up for sure.
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 6
That certainly is an X factor. But the danger of Dollar goes to
oblivion outweighs the price drop of gold by a ton. The price of
gold is marching toward 2000 and higher w/in MAObama's firt term,
so it doesn't matter if you get in at 900 or 700.
I don't encourage people to panic, but I don't wanna play music
chair w/ Dollar collapse either.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: 发信人: starwood (四大伍德), 信区: Investment
: 标 题: Gold
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu May 7 23:40:03 2009), 转信
: someone said that IMF was about to get concensus to sell huge amount
: of gold. it's price might go to 700. anyone know about the rumor?
|
m**********r
发帖数: 887 | |
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 8 Good call. It's a nice way to avoid keeping all eggs in one basket.
【在 m**********r 的大作中提到】
: 买所有的 commodities 比如 DBC
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 9 没办法,马克思早就说过了,无产阶级革命最彻底. 人越有钱,胆子越小.
【在 c****o 的大作中提到】
|
s*******1
发帖数: 11216 | |
|
|
a*******i
发帖数: 11664 | 11 IMHO, DBE, DBA, and DBB are also not bad.
【在 m**********r 的大作中提到】
: 买所有的 commodities 比如 DBC
|
s**x
发帖数: 7506 | 12 卖 covered call 吧。 欧最近总卖 covered call, 或 sell puts.
没信心，就卖 deep in the money 的 call.
当然，大跌不好整。 |
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 13 if you are bold enough, buy oil or energy stocks. |
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 14 now?
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: if you are bold enough, buy oil or energy stocks.
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 15 Yeah, summer is coming. My suggestion is buy energy and sell financial. It
should be a good arbitrage. |
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 16 My LD told me to buy oil in March, due to the same reason.
I did, but sold it too early (habitually), because of my
contrarian nature. The profit is still quite good though.
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: Yeah, summer is coming. My suggestion is buy energy and sell financial. It
: should be a good arbitrage.
|
s*******1
发帖数: 11216 | 17 搞了半天是股票。股票太伤心了。被套牢3年了2万啊都是偶的血汗钱。现在又不工作没
钱碰。 |
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 18 你好,我一直有个问题也许你可以替我解答. 我一直觉得股版的人很有钱,动不动
就是在某个股票上挣了几万亏了几万的. 按照我的算法,在某个股票上都能挣亏
这么多. 那投资应该怎么也有几十万,近百万的. 可是,我LD说那是因为他们把所
有的钱都投在一个或几个股票上了. 真的是这样的么? 就如你说的,这可是血汗
钱呐,我很难想象会有人这么做,除非是把那个公司的财务研究透了.
【在 s*******1 的大作中提到】
: 搞了半天是股票。股票太伤心了。被套牢3年了2万啊都是偶的血汗钱。现在又不工作没
: 钱碰。
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 19 就算你买SPY，如果买在最高，卖在最低，也能亏50%。
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: 你好,我一直有个问题也许你可以替我解答. 我一直觉得股版的人很有钱,动不动
: 就是在某个股票上挣了几万亏了几万的. 按照我的算法,在某个股票上都能挣亏
: 这么多. 那投资应该怎么也有几十万,近百万的. 可是,我LD说那是因为他们把所
: 有的钱都投在一个或几个股票上了. 真的是这样的么? 就如你说的,这可是血汗
: 钱呐,我很难想象会有人这么做,除非是把那个公司的财务研究透了.
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 20 he/she didn't say it's one stock.
If losing 20k on 5 stocks combined, I don't think there is
obvious gambling involved. (OP doesn't sound like he/she only
has that 20k.)
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: 你好,我一直有个问题也许你可以替我解答. 我一直觉得股版的人很有钱,动不动
: 就是在某个股票上挣了几万亏了几万的. 按照我的算法,在某个股票上都能挣亏
: 这么多. 那投资应该怎么也有几十万,近百万的. 可是,我LD说那是因为他们把所
: 有的钱都投在一个或几个股票上了. 真的是这样的么? 就如你说的,这可是血汗
: 钱呐,我很难想象会有人这么做,除非是把那个公司的财务研究透了.
|
|
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 21 You missed my point. I'm just trying to sample if the people in stock board
indeed have multiple of $100Ks invested or they all-in most of the time. I
don't have any pre-defined concept otherwise I wouldn't even post the
question.
I'm just trying to reconcile the fact that many of them only have a few
years working experience yet they could have $100Ks+ money for investment.
Am I being paid way too low or am I not saving enough? How come beside 401K,
I don't have so much investment...as well as
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: he/she didn't say it's one stock.
: If losing 20k on 5 stocks combined, I don't think there is
: obvious gambling involved. (OP doesn't sound like he/she only
: has that 20k.)
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 22 Why I feel differently?
I saw the most popular lamp is 银灯，which is a few thousand
gain or loss at a time.
Besides, stock board's portfolio typically has a huge beta. I would
expect something 5 times as volatile as S&P.
board
401K,
investment
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: You missed my point. I'm just trying to sample if the people in stock board
: indeed have multiple of $100Ks invested or they all-in most of the time. I
: don't have any pre-defined concept otherwise I wouldn't even post the
: question.
: I'm just trying to reconcile the fact that many of them only have a few
: years working experience yet they could have $100Ks+ money for investment.
: Am I being paid way too low or am I not saving enough? How come beside 401K,
: I don't have so much investment...as well as
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 23 I don't understand you people. Why do you even bother to believe any word
those da niu said on stock board?
board
401K,
investment
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: You missed my point. I'm just trying to sample if the people in stock board
: indeed have multiple of $100Ks invested or they all-in most of the time. I
: don't have any pre-defined concept otherwise I wouldn't even post the
: question.
: I'm just trying to reconcile the fact that many of them only have a few
: years working experience yet they could have $100Ks+ money for investment.
: Am I being paid way too low or am I not saving enough? How come beside 401K,
: I don't have so much investment...as well as
|
x*******1
发帖数: 28835 | 24 can't believe in paper work .
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: 你好,我一直有个问题也许你可以替我解答. 我一直觉得股版的人很有钱,动不动
: 就是在某个股票上挣了几万亏了几万的. 按照我的算法,在某个股票上都能挣亏
: 这么多. 那投资应该怎么也有几十万,近百万的. 可是,我LD说那是因为他们把所
: 有的钱都投在一个或几个股票上了. 真的是这样的么? 就如你说的,这可是血汗
: 钱呐,我很难想象会有人这么做,除非是把那个公司的财务研究透了.
|
C******e
发帖数: 1850 | |
s*******e
发帖数: 3042 | 26 我观察两年了，古板的大部分人都是瞎折腾，垃圾股，margin，call，什么都敢上，运
气好的上手能赚100%，裤衩都亏掉的更多
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: 你好,我一直有个问题也许你可以替我解答. 我一直觉得股版的人很有钱,动不动
: 就是在某个股票上挣了几万亏了几万的. 按照我的算法,在某个股票上都能挣亏
: 这么多. 那投资应该怎么也有几十万,近百万的. 可是,我LD说那是因为他们把所
: 有的钱都投在一个或几个股票上了. 真的是这样的么? 就如你说的,这可是血汗
: 钱呐,我很难想象会有人这么做,除非是把那个公司的财务研究透了.
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 27 Did you buy it or not?
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: now?
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 28 thanks for your attention.
I bought some oil, materials, chemical, gold mfs last year, based on the
advice on stock board. As a tuition paid a frog like me, all are under deep
water right now, except gold (just above the water a few days ago). For them
, kind of still have 心灵创伤。:)
Right now, your logic is sound. But on the other hand, some people say the dow and sp500 are kind of high. they may go down 10-30%. if this happens, the the oil/energy funds may also be down together? This is my concer
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: Did you buy it or not?
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 29 I am bullish on commodity especially energy. Don't be suprise if oil shoot
to $100, there's just too much hot money chasing it. I dont buy the story
that dow or spx will retest march low, however a moderate correction is
feasible (10-15%). If you are actively trading, you need pay attention to
those retracement. But in long term perspective $60-70 oil price sounds
pretty reasonable.
I don't suggest you listen to advice from stock board, ppl in this board
seem to me knowing the economy and market |
y****e
发帖数: 23939 | 30 他们用margin、玩option、short。只要用一点leverage，是很容易亏很大的。当然赌
对了的话
挣得也多。
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: 你好,我一直有个问题也许你可以替我解答. 我一直觉得股版的人很有钱,动不动
: 就是在某个股票上挣了几万亏了几万的. 按照我的算法,在某个股票上都能挣亏
: 这么多. 那投资应该怎么也有几十万,近百万的. 可是,我LD说那是因为他们把所
: 有的钱都投在一个或几个股票上了. 真的是这样的么? 就如你说的,这可是血汗
: 钱呐,我很难想象会有人这么做,除非是把那个公司的财务研究透了.
|
|
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 31 thanks
1) so oil may be up to 100 in a short term; and in a long term, is is about
60-70? Right now it is about $65. So in a long term, not much profit? in
your time frame, what is short term and long term?
2) u r in financial industry?
3) the correction of dow will not be lower than 7200?
4) if dow down, will oil be down too?
5) do you have some recommendation for fidilty funds on energy?
(a side note: for people in financial industry, they all have trading limitations. I just wonder how to enf
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: I am bullish on commodity especially energy. Don't be suprise if oil shoot
: to $100, there's just too much hot money chasing it. I dont buy the story
: that dow or spx will retest march low, however a moderate correction is
: feasible (10-15%). If you are actively trading, you need pay attention to
: those retracement. But in long term perspective $60-70 oil price sounds
: pretty reasonable.
: I don't suggest you listen to advice from stock board, ppl in this board
: seem to me knowing the economy and market
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 32 I'm not bruclee, but here are some of my answers to your question:
1. I'm pretty sure oil price will be fixed at $65 over long term. You know
here in investment board, we like to use the word "long term" but I'm pretty
sure its price will go up and down as that is the nature of the commodity
market. Over an extreme long term, it may be close to zero because people
may invent other ways to produce energy. Until that day comes, it is
governed by the worldwide energy consumption and oil supply. Oil
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: thanks
: 1) so oil may be up to 100 in a short term; and in a long term, is is about
: 60-70? Right now it is about $65. So in a long term, not much profit? in
: your time frame, what is short term and long term?
: 2) u r in financial industry?
: 3) the correction of dow will not be lower than 7200?
: 4) if dow down, will oil be down too?
: 5) do you have some recommendation for fidilty funds on energy?
: (a side note: for people in financial industry, they all have trading limitations. I just wonder how to enf
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 33 Well said above, some more comments to share.
My predicition of long-term oil price is actually not that long. I was
assuming the U.S. recover will take relatively longer term from 5 to 10
years. And in that horizon, $60 to $70 average oil price is very reasonalbe
and touching $100 or above is highly possible.
If you pay attention to global stock market, you may find U.S. energy sector
actaully strongly underperformed oil driven sovereign indices in current
oil price rally. This is consistent to |
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 34 thank you both.
reasonalbe
sector
will
performance
Sorry, I still don't quite get it. in the long term (i.e. 10 years, the oil
will be above $65. But in about 1-3 years, the price would be over $100? Do
you understand you right? Also do you have any advice on fido energy funds? thanks.
For the macro picture, I believe the worst have gone and we may see more and
more better econ data in the 2HY. Although the recover may not have a V
shape or even slowly, the possibility to observe quick rally in
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: Well said above, some more comments to share.
: My predicition of long-term oil price is actually not that long. I was
: assuming the U.S. recover will take relatively longer term from 5 to 10
: years. And in that horizon, $60 to $70 average oil price is very reasonalbe
: and touching $100 or above is highly possible.
: If you pay attention to global stock market, you may find U.S. energy sector
: actaully strongly underperformed oil driven sovereign indices in current
: oil price rally. This is consistent to
|
c****o
发帖数: 32446 | 35 嗨，超级踏空的伤心人飘过，最近市场吃了药还是咋的 |
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | |
s***w
发帖数: 521 | 37 现在反而不敢进了吗？
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: u r still all in cash?
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 38 我最近一直在进,还有好多cash没用呢。不过我建议大家不要死盯热门板块，接下来还
是应该会有调整的，现在的冷门板块可能会变热门。 |
s***w
发帖数: 521 | 39 比如？
还有，前面你说的关于油的long-term, short-term, 能不能再讲讲？我也有哪个
facmit的疑问。
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: 我最近一直在进,还有好多cash没用呢。不过我建议大家不要死盯热门板块，接下来还
: 是应该会有调整的，现在的冷门板块可能会变热门。
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 40 可以关注一下utility,中长期都看好。
石油的话，我认为70%是炒作，30%是其价值。当油价炒到150的时候，其本身价值也就
在50美刀左右，所以一旦金融危机爆发，那70%就蒸发了，甚至跌破了其原有价值。因
此当我看到油价40刀以下时，便毫不犹豫的进仓了。
如果我们仍以50刀作为其本身价值的话，那么70美刀也就只有40%的炒作成份，这对于
经济复苏期的初级阶段还是可以承受的。如果石油想突破75到的话，就需要更强的经济
数据作为支撑，目前来看我还没有观察到。但作为长期投资者的话，3到5年内较好的经
济数据出现的可能性还是较大的。
【在 s***w 的大作中提到】
: 比如？
: 还有，前面你说的关于油的long-term, short-term, 能不能再讲讲？我也有哪个
: facmit的疑问。
|
|
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 41 //comfort. I'm 100% stocks in 401K but I probably only just break even, with
the help from DCA. The S&P 500 now is roughly at its fair value. So it
would be interesting to see which direction it will go from here.
I exit my trading position too early as well. Now I am sitting on cash and
don't know what to buy. I only averaged up my Chinese stock holdings (to
protect dollar risks) a little bit, but I'm running out of ideas elsewhere.
By the way, I kept hearing many of my colleagues who sold out
【在 c****o 的大作中提到】
: 嗨，超级踏空的伤心人飘过，最近市场吃了药还是咋的
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 42
现在进，还是等回调？utility 除了油，电，还有什么？谢谢！
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: 可以关注一下utility,中长期都看好。
: 石油的话，我认为70%是炒作，30%是其价值。当油价炒到150的时候，其本身价值也就
: 在50美刀左右，所以一旦金融危机爆发，那70%就蒸发了，甚至跌破了其原有价值。因
: 此当我看到油价40刀以下时，便毫不犹豫的进仓了。
: 如果我们仍以50刀作为其本身价值的话，那么70美刀也就只有40%的炒作成份，这对于
: 经济复苏期的初级阶段还是可以承受的。如果石油想突破75到的话，就需要更强的经济
: 数据作为支撑，目前来看我还没有观察到。但作为长期投资者的话，3到5年内较好的经
: 济数据出现的可能性还是较大的。
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 43 Good to hear that. I thought you are a strong DCAer and Indexer. :)
with
it
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: //comfort. I'm 100% stocks in 401K but I probably only just break even, with
: the help from DCA. The S&P 500 now is roughly at its fair value. So it
: would be interesting to see which direction it will go from here.
: I exit my trading position too early as well. Now I am sitting on cash and
: don't know what to buy. I only averaged up my Chinese stock holdings (to
: protect dollar risks) a little bit, but I'm running out of ideas elsewhere.
: By the way, I kept hearing many of my colleagues who sold out
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 44 应该还有water, sewer, garbage, hehe.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: Good to hear that. I thought you are a strong DCAer and Indexer. :)
:
: with
: it
|
s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 45 It seems I'm much more bullish on oil than both of you.
IMO, if it were not because of this recession, oil should stand steadily
above $100 right now.
From late 2007 to mid 2008, oil price has been stayer at ~$100 level for
half a year, and I don't think speculation can support the price for such a
long time. Afterall, someone need to take physical delivery when the
contracts expire.
Although the US may take a lot longer to recover, the global demand for oil
will more likely get back to track of
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: Well said above, some more comments to share.
: My predicition of long-term oil price is actually not that long. I was
: assuming the U.S. recover will take relatively longer term from 5 to 10
: years. And in that horizon, $60 to $70 average oil price is very reasonalbe
: and touching $100 or above is highly possible.
: If you pay attention to global stock market, you may find U.S. energy sector
: actaully strongly underperformed oil driven sovereign indices in current
: oil price rally. This is consistent to
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 46 你真够有才的。。。
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: 应该还有water, sewer, garbage, hehe.
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 47 你可以逐步进仓。我只买板块基金，不关注个股。
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: Good to hear that. I thought you are a strong DCAer and Indexer. :)
:
: with
: it
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 48 I know. basically the sector has only oil, gas, electricity. ?
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: 你可以逐步进仓。我只买板块基金，不关注个股。
|
s***w
发帖数: 521 | 49
Can you please share the reason?
also how about consumer dicr/staples???
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: 可以关注一下utility,中长期都看好。
: 石油的话，我认为70%是炒作，30%是其价值。当油价炒到150的时候，其本身价值也就
: 在50美刀左右，所以一旦金融危机爆发，那70%就蒸发了，甚至跌破了其原有价值。因
: 此当我看到油价40刀以下时，便毫不犹豫的进仓了。
: 如果我们仍以50刀作为其本身价值的话，那么70美刀也就只有40%的炒作成份，这对于
: 经济复苏期的初级阶段还是可以承受的。如果石油想突破75到的话，就需要更强的经济
: 数据作为支撑，目前来看我还没有观察到。但作为长期投资者的话，3到5年内较好的经
: 济数据出现的可能性还是较大的。
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 50 Consumer staples usually goes against commodities -- i.e., it's
the weakest among bull market.
Consumer disr, on the other hand, has stronger correlation with
commodities.
【在 s***w 的大作中提到】
:
: Can you please share the reason?
: also how about consumer dicr/staples???
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s***w
发帖数: 521 | 51
please explain?
please explain too, thanks :) (comsumer disr = Consumer Discretionary?)
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Consumer staples usually goes against commodities -- i.e., it's
: the weakest among bull market.
: Consumer disr, on the other hand, has stronger correlation with
: commodities.
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 52 It's just statistics ah. No explanation.
【在 s***w 的大作中提到】
:
: please explain?
: please explain too, thanks :) (comsumer disr = Consumer Discretionary?)
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u**o
发帖数: 4652 | |
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 54 I favour utility cuz I thought it was over sold in this financial crsis and
hasn't recovered as strong as other sectors. As a defensive sector, it
should not be sold so deeply. With the energy price and comodity price
picking up, comsumer confidnece recover, utility cos have better opportunity
to get a high profit margin.
Above are just my 2 cents. |
a******o
发帖数: 7982 | 55
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: I know. basically the sector has only oil, gas, electricity. ?
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 56 请问哪些是热门，哪些是冷门？
engergy/oil是热门，还是冷门？谢谢！
and
opportunity
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: I favour utility cuz I thought it was over sold in this financial crsis and
: hasn't recovered as strong as other sectors. As a defensive sector, it
: should not be sold so deeply. With the energy price and comodity price
: picking up, comsumer confidnece recover, utility cos have better opportunity
: to get a high profit margin.
: Above are just my 2 cents.
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b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 57 Anything related to energy and commodity should be hot. |
m*****u
发帖数: 1342 | 58 Gold/Silver is better than cash, but not as good as good stocks (the earning
power of solid companies, Buffett words) for the long run.
The huge run of stocks since March low proved this. Of course the entry
point/selections of stocks are also very important, if not critical.
As to commodity, I agree with one of the commentators: Oil is better than
gold/silver.
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
: I like gold and silver in particular. They might be a little
: bumpy now but in the long run will shoot up for sure.
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b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 59 We can choose a few good stocks of gold miners to get exposed to Gold.
I've chosen ABX, GFI, GSS. One is big, one developing, one small.
earning
【在 m*****u 的大作中提到】
: Gold/Silver is better than cash, but not as good as good stocks (the earning
: power of solid companies, Buffett words) for the long run.
: The huge run of stocks since March low proved this. Of course the entry
: point/selections of stocks are also very important, if not critical.
: As to commodity, I agree with one of the commentators: Oil is better than
: gold/silver.
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 60
You can also buy GDX ETF if you don't wanna track several gold
companies.
【在 b*****h 的大作中提到】
: We can choose a few good stocks of gold miners to get exposed to Gold.
: I've chosen ABX, GFI, GSS. One is big, one developing, one small.
:
: earning
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|
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b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 61 Yes, just don't like ETFs in general.
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: You can also buy GDX ETF if you don't wanna track several gold
: companies.
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l**i
发帖数: 176 | 62 你怎么知道50刀是石油的价值？
70和75的区别也太小了吧，如果又要泡沫一下，75也不会成为一个坎啊
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: 可以关注一下utility,中长期都看好。
: 石油的话，我认为70%是炒作，30%是其价值。当油价炒到150的时候，其本身价值也就
: 在50美刀左右，所以一旦金融危机爆发，那70%就蒸发了，甚至跌破了其原有价值。因
: 此当我看到油价40刀以下时，便毫不犹豫的进仓了。
: 如果我们仍以50刀作为其本身价值的话，那么70美刀也就只有40%的炒作成份，这对于
: 经济复苏期的初级阶段还是可以承受的。如果石油想突破75到的话，就需要更强的经济
: 数据作为支撑，目前来看我还没有观察到。但作为长期投资者的话，3到5年内较好的经
: 济数据出现的可能性还是较大的。
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l**i
发帖数: 176 | 63 这些utility的公司类似零售商吧。
他们从资源公司大批进货，然后卖给每家每户。
如果商品原料价格上升，除非零售价也涨，否则他们是赔的。
不过这类defensive公司确实超跌还没弹回来。
我也在考虑怎么买些。选板块etf买。不知有哪些
and
opportunity
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: I favour utility cuz I thought it was over sold in this financial crsis and
: hasn't recovered as strong as other sectors. As a defensive sector, it
: should not be sold so deeply. With the energy price and comodity price
: picking up, comsumer confidnece recover, utility cos have better opportunity
: to get a high profit margin.
: Above are just my 2 cents.
|
b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 64 石油从150跌到34的时候，你觉得你家电费账单的单价跌过多少？
【在 l**i 的大作中提到】
: 这些utility的公司类似零售商吧。
: 他们从资源公司大批进货，然后卖给每家每户。
: 如果商品原料价格上升，除非零售价也涨，否则他们是赔的。
: 不过这类defensive公司确实超跌还没弹回来。
: 我也在考虑怎么买些。选板块etf买。不知有哪些
:
: and
: opportunity
|
m*****u
发帖数: 1342 | 65 I have NRG. The utilities (include NRG) dropped quite a bit today.
【在 l**i 的大作中提到】
: 这些utility的公司类似零售商吧。
: 他们从资源公司大批进货，然后卖给每家每户。
: 如果商品原料价格上升，除非零售价也涨，否则他们是赔的。
: 不过这类defensive公司确实超跌还没弹回来。
: 我也在考虑怎么买些。选板块etf买。不知有哪些
:
: and
: opportunity
|
s***w
发帖数: 521 | 66
comsumer staples 是不是也是这样，和utility类似??
【在 l**i 的大作中提到】
: 这些utility的公司类似零售商吧。
: 他们从资源公司大批进货，然后卖给每家每户。
: 如果商品原料价格上升，除非零售价也涨，否则他们是赔的。
: 不过这类defensive公司确实超跌还没弹回来。
: 我也在考虑怎么买些。选板块etf买。不知有哪些
:
: and
: opportunity
|
s***w
发帖数: 521 | 67 这个反弹，似乎fido的两个sector 都涨了，和你的理论不符？
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Consumer staples usually goes against commodities -- i.e., it's
: the weakest among bull market.
: Consumer disr, on the other hand, has stronger correlation with
: commodities.
|
l**i
发帖数: 176 | 68 ??这不就对了吗?油价狂涨对utility公司不好啊
油价涨到150时,电费也没翻3倍啊.那时他们是亏的啊
跌到34的时候,电费也没跌多少,但是油价应该在他们成本之下,就赚的啊
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: 石油从150跌到34的时候，你觉得你家电费账单的单价跌过多少？
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 69 good point!
【在 l**i 的大作中提到】
: ??这不就对了吗?油价狂涨对utility公司不好啊
: 油价涨到150时,电费也没翻3倍啊.那时他们是亏的啊
: 跌到34的时候,电费也没跌多少,但是油价应该在他们成本之下,就赚的啊
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b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 70 我只是举个例子。
油价和电费应该不是线性关系，我是想说明油价上涨那么多代表inflation,电力公司在
inflation expectation 高的时候，应该有更高的margin.
【在 l**i 的大作中提到】
: ??这不就对了吗?油价狂涨对utility公司不好啊
: 油价涨到150时,电费也没翻3倍啊.那时他们是亏的啊
: 跌到34的时候,电费也没跌多少,但是油价应该在他们成本之下,就赚的啊
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l**i
发帖数: 176 | 71 哦.
那inflation具体怎么让电力公司有高margin呢?
【在 b*****e 的大作中提到】
: 我只是举个例子。
: 油价和电费应该不是线性关系，我是想说明油价上涨那么多代表inflation,电力公司在
: inflation expectation 高的时候，应该有更高的margin.
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b*****e
发帖数: 1125 | 72 很多utility公司都是有自己的能源储备，而不是全部都从其他公司进口能源的。换句
话说他们有自己的天然气储备。
【在 l**i 的大作中提到】
: 哦.
: 那inflation具体怎么让电力公司有高margin呢?
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t*******d
发帖数: 2570 | 73 电力公司在inflation的时候并不见得有高margin,但是margin并不降低，因为电力公司
的价格定价是跟inflation连在一起的，inflation涨，电价也跟着涨。所以盈利可以保
持不变。
【在 l**i 的大作中提到】
: 哦.
: 那inflation具体怎么让电力公司有高margin呢?
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l**i
发帖数: 176 | 74 make sense
这样他们不容易倒闭.再加上有分红.现在买入是好机会.
等过些日子再跌跌就买
【在 t*******d 的大作中提到】
: 电力公司在inflation的时候并不见得有高margin,但是margin并不降低，因为电力公司
: 的价格定价是跟inflation连在一起的，inflation涨，电价也跟着涨。所以盈利可以保
: 持不变。
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f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 75 你高兴了吧
大家觉得commodity 是不是歇菜一阵了，还是继续看好？
【在 c****o 的大作中提到】
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