EB23版 - @@@@@updated analysis on 485 data, latest!!!!! |
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p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 1 facts:
1. 52k 485 are submitted on Dec/Jan. This number includes: all EB and
refugees. some PD in 2008 submitted their 485 on Feb or later.and few new
eb3 485 in Dec and Jan.
2. 5k "new" 485 per month for EB except for EB2IC.
3. Refugees are estimated by dymu as 10k per month,
4. EB2IC supply in 2012: 8k+25k SO= 32k
5. many EB2IC gc numbers are used in Oct and Nov, more than 15k.
estimation:
a.demand before PD 2009: the new 485 for eb2ic submitted in Dec and Jan is
52k- 20k(refugees)-10k(EB others)=22k. Since some PD in 2008 will submit
there 485 in Feb or later, the PD before 2008 will be more than 22k.
b. supply in 2012: 32k-15k(used in Oct and Nov)= 17k
PD in 2008 can't be clear in 2012. Plus Eb3I to EB2I and late submission of
485 of PD 2008. It will be around 10k 2008 PD left before Oct 2012.
we don't need to care about others, eb2ic got maximum 30k SO in 2011.
plus own EB2IC 8k quota, eb2ic has less than 40k quota. So the rest of EB(
eb2 row, eb1, eb5) is 140k-40k(eb3)-40k(eb2ic)=60k. it is 60k/12=5k per
month.two months is 10k.
EB3 will not submit new 485(or very few) in Dec and Jan.
I am counting how many 485 for PD before 2009.
Refugees are estimated by dymu as 10k per month, 20k in those 2 months. We
now have ONLY 21k left for EB2CI. | p***e
发帖数: 29053 | | n*****y
发帖数: 1217 | 3 结论是什么，大家好像没有什么心情和你一起做算术题。
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: facts:
: 1. 52k 485 are submitted on Dec/Jan. This number includes: all EB and
: refugees. some PD in 2008 submitted their 485 on Feb or later.and few new
: eb3 485 in Dec and Jan.
: 2. 5k "new" 485 per month for EB except for EB2IC.
: 3. Refugees are estimated by dymu as 10k per month,
: 4. EB2IC supply in 2012: 8k+25k SO= 32k
: 5. many EB2IC gc numbers are used in Oct and Nov, more than 15k.
: estimation:
: a.demand before PD 2009: the new 485 for eb2ic submitted in Dec and Jan is
| a**********r
发帖数: 1069 | 4 评价：优良分析贴，但是较比悲观，没有与时俱进，毕竟人家都放出口风了，确实较他
们估计的要少，他们估计的应该和你差不多。 | p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 5 majority PD 2009 will not be cleared in year 2012.
Some 2008 PD will not be cleared in year 2012
【在 n*****y 的大作中提到】
: 结论是什么，大家好像没有什么心情和你一起做算术题。
| B*********h
发帖数: 1854 | | o**y
发帖数: 1466 | | b*****u
发帖数: 1339 | 8 结论是?
[发表自未名空间手机版 - m.mitbbs.com] | B*****g
发帖数: 34098 | |
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