p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 1 A total of 73,293 persons were admitted to the United States as refugees
during 2010
So 2-month refugees 485 in TSC and LIN should be 73000/12*2/3*2=8000 (Vermont also deals with refugee and asylum)
Assume asylum has the same number as refugees. The total number of refugees and asylum is 16K
Assume TSC has the same 485 as LIN.
Total 485 received in Jan and Feb is 60K (Based on dymu's data).
The total EB 485 for Jan and Feb is 44K (60K-16K).
44K 485(2008/4 to 2009/12) inventory.
How long would it take to digest them?
Discussion
1. Did dymu scan all of the receipt number? Is there any receipt in 128XXXX
in addition to 129XXXX?
2. Is refugee the same as asylum? The number I used is for refugee. I can't
find asylum data.
3. What's percentage of refugee/asylum application filing to USCIS compared to possible consular processing? |
l******d
发帖数: 1633 | 2 TSC has less application then NSC
my guess about the ratio is about 1:2
128XXXX
【在 p*****a 的大作中提到】
: A total of 73,293 persons were admitted to the United States as refugees
: during 2010
: So 2-month refugees 485 in TSC and LIN should be 73000/12*2/3*2=8000 (Vermont also deals with refugee and asylum)
: Assume asylum has the same number as refugees. The total number of refugees and asylum is 16K
: Assume TSC has the same 485 as LIN.
: Total 485 received in Jan and Feb is 60K (Based on dymu's data).
: The total EB 485 for Jan and Feb is 44K (60K-16K).
: 44K 485(2008/4 to 2009/12) inventory.
: How long would it take to digest them?
: Discussion
|
l**7
发帖数: 3940 | 3 Big zan!!!!! 事实上还有政庇asylum (非refugee) 的485没减掉呢 所以剩下的已交EB
485可能更少
128XXXX
【在 p*****a 的大作中提到】
: A total of 73,293 persons were admitted to the United States as refugees
: during 2010
: So 2-month refugees 485 in TSC and LIN should be 73000/12*2/3*2=8000 (Vermont also deals with refugee and asylum)
: Assume asylum has the same number as refugees. The total number of refugees and asylum is 16K
: Assume TSC has the same 485 as LIN.
: Total 485 received in Jan and Feb is 60K (Based on dymu's data).
: The total EB 485 for Jan and Feb is 44K (60K-16K).
: 44K 485(2008/4 to 2009/12) inventory.
: How long would it take to digest them?
: Discussion
|
p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | |
s******t
发帖数: 926 | 5 The key is to compare EB2CI 485 vs SO. Your number is still total EB485....
Based on dymu's data, there are 2500 I-140 demand which I think half of them
(big assumption here) come from EB1 and EB2ROW and the other half will be
EB CI demand. Assuming TSC is the same (another big assumption), so EB1 and
EB2ROW 140 demand is 2500 in 2 months, so 15k in a year. Assuming 485 can
double that (third big assumption), so 30k demand this year. EB45 has 10k
demand and EB3 has its own 40k quota. This leaves SO with 140k-30k-10k-40k=
60k!
Anything wrong here?
Vermont also deals with refugee and asylum)
refugees and asylum is 16K
【在 p*****a 的大作中提到】
: A total of 73,293 persons were admitted to the United States as refugees
: during 2010
: So 2-month refugees 485 in TSC and LIN should be 73000/12*2/3*2=8000 (Vermont also deals with refugee and asylum)
: Assume asylum has the same number as refugees. The total number of refugees and asylum is 16K
: Assume TSC has the same 485 as LIN.
: Total 485 received in Jan and Feb is 60K (Based on dymu's data).
: The total EB 485 for Jan and Feb is 44K (60K-16K).
: 44K 485(2008/4 to 2009/12) inventory.
: How long would it take to digest them?
: Discussion
|
l**7
发帖数: 3940 | 6 看来我的黄金分割估all EB 485 还挺准的哈哈 |
c**s
发帖数: 3796 | 7 re
Vermont also deals with refugee and asylum)
refugees and asylum is 16K
【在 p*****a 的大作中提到】
: A total of 73,293 persons were admitted to the United States as refugees
: during 2010
: So 2-month refugees 485 in TSC and LIN should be 73000/12*2/3*2=8000 (Vermont also deals with refugee and asylum)
: Assume asylum has the same number as refugees. The total number of refugees and asylum is 16K
: Assume TSC has the same 485 as LIN.
: Total 485 received in Jan and Feb is 60K (Based on dymu's data).
: The total EB 485 for Jan and Feb is 44K (60K-16K).
: 44K 485(2008/4 to 2009/12) inventory.
: How long would it take to digest them?
: Discussion
|
d**u
发帖数: 1065 | |
c*******l
发帖数: 823 | |
y**********r
发帖数: 2004 | |
|
|
c*m
发帖数: 836 | 11 I don't think you can assume TSC and NSC have the same number. From our
experience there are much more 485's in TSC. |
p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 12 According to scan result, TSC is a little big less than NSC.
【在 c*m 的大作中提到】
: I don't think you can assume TSC and NSC have the same number. From our
: experience there are much more 485's in TSC.
|
i****s
发帖数: 1152 | 13 鼎分析
Vermont also deals with refugee and asylum)
refugees and asylum is 16K
【在 p*****a 的大作中提到】
: A total of 73,293 persons were admitted to the United States as refugees
: during 2010
: So 2-month refugees 485 in TSC and LIN should be 73000/12*2/3*2=8000 (Vermont also deals with refugee and asylum)
: Assume asylum has the same number as refugees. The total number of refugees and asylum is 16K
: Assume TSC has the same 485 as LIN.
: Total 485 received in Jan and Feb is 60K (Based on dymu's data).
: The total EB 485 for Jan and Feb is 44K (60K-16K).
: 44K 485(2008/4 to 2009/12) inventory.
: How long would it take to digest them?
: Discussion
|
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | |
p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 15 I guess only 70%-80% 08 and 09PD submitted their 485 in Jan and Feb
Vermont also deals with refugee and asylum)
refugees and asylum is 16K
【在 p*****a 的大作中提到】
: A total of 73,293 persons were admitted to the United States as refugees
: during 2010
: So 2-month refugees 485 in TSC and LIN should be 73000/12*2/3*2=8000 (Vermont also deals with refugee and asylum)
: Assume asylum has the same number as refugees. The total number of refugees and asylum is 16K
: Assume TSC has the same 485 as LIN.
: Total 485 received in Jan and Feb is 60K (Based on dymu's data).
: The total EB 485 for Jan and Feb is 44K (60K-16K).
: 44K 485(2008/4 to 2009/12) inventory.
: How long would it take to digest them?
: Discussion
|
p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 16 no FB in TSC and NSC
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: marked
: how about FB?
|
D******g
发帖数: 2717 | 17 70%, 80% is not "only"...
【在 p***e 的大作中提到】
: I guess only 70%-80% 08 and 09PD submitted their 485 in Jan and Feb
:
: Vermont also deals with refugee and asylum)
: refugees and asylum is 16K
|
t**c
发帖数: 7480 | 18 conclusions?
Vermont also deals with refugee and asylum)
refugees and asylum is 16K
【在 p*****a 的大作中提到】
: A total of 73,293 persons were admitted to the United States as refugees
: during 2010
: So 2-month refugees 485 in TSC and LIN should be 73000/12*2/3*2=8000 (Vermont also deals with refugee and asylum)
: Assume asylum has the same number as refugees. The total number of refugees and asylum is 16K
: Assume TSC has the same 485 as LIN.
: Total 485 received in Jan and Feb is 60K (Based on dymu's data).
: The total EB 485 for Jan and Feb is 44K (60K-16K).
: 44K 485(2008/4 to 2009/12) inventory.
: How long would it take to digest them?
: Discussion
|
z*****a
发帖数: 1214 | 19 看不懂数据的人弱弱地问一句
如果4月不倒退，是不是本财政年倒退的可能性都不大了？ |
