l*******c
发帖数: 523 | 1 据烙印论坛说，有人PD是09-11-2008的已经收到NVC的 Fee notice.
Reference: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012/page112
以下是烙印对一月份VB的分析，感觉比较合理：
Following is the current trend based on the dashboard, Trackitt and other
news and information.
GC Issuance date based on 25K will be 15-DEC-2007 - 01-JAN-2008 by the end
of FY 2012.
Next VB (Jan 2012) in all probability will be the final intake if HR-3012
does not go through.
Possibility 50% - 2 months of additional intake to move to 15th MAY to 01-
JUN-2008 (This is purely if CO feels additional Intake is required, this
scenario is possible if CO is projecting 30K SOFAD in that case he only has
2K buffer may need more).
Possibility 50% - Dates retrogress back, this would mean 16.5K Sofad now
has to be adjusted in 8 bulletins; this may mean that the dates go back to
somewhere Jun 2007 for the first batch.
The prediction for the next bulletin is purely based the fact that the Sofad
for 2012 maybe around 25k. With the current intakes there is a 7K buffer so
if CO wants more buffer then he will go for more intake, if he feels it’s
sufficient it might be time to retrogress. In either case if the movement is
guarded or dates retrogress we can logically expect the same cycle to occur
every year Oct - Dec. however atleast for next month there will be another
factor the HR 3012 factor based on likelihood of passage in the senate then
I believe forward movement will not stop itself.
The 7K buffer is calculated as - 8.5K (Approved) + 3.5K (PWMB APR 15 - JUL
15) + 20K (@2500 PM Intake for 8 Months) - 25K (SOFAD)
If HR 3012 becomes the law of the land then EB2 I/C date will reach 01-JAN-
2009 by the end of FY 2012.
- The current consumption is 8.5K; this is based on the fact that the
October demand data showed 8.5K and looks like all preadjudicated cases from
Jul 2007 are approved now. The demand data came down to 0 in December.
-We expect that 3.5K PWMB cases that have PD's between 15th Apr and 15th
Jum would have been filed.
- This makes the demand + consumption pre Jul 15th 2007 = 12K. So to
achieve 25K another 13K of intake is required.
- Porting I believe is just 3K per annum in fact the effective reduction in
the EB3 inventory shows even less, however we must offset for local office
cases that were added midyear. The inventory approach only helps to measure
porting for preadjudicated cases only, post Jul 2007 the EB2 – EB3 ratio is
75-25 this accounts for porting for non preadjudicated cases. Most people
post Jul 2007 did not have the benefit of EAD/AP and they have converted to
EB2 already or are in the process. The ratio of 75-25 already accounts for
this.
- For EB2 the dependent ratio is 2.125 this is under the assumption that
people will be quite rarely single and 1 in 8 families are highly likely to
have atleast 1 non-us born kid.
-The perm computations suggest that there may result in ~ 2200 EB2 I485's
per month. Past history suggests a very good correlation between the number
of I+C perms and I485’s with the correlation coefficient being 1. Now if we
distribute porting evenly over the year we can approximate the density to
2500 per month. This works very well to the duration of Jul 2007 to Jul 2008
. CP is quite small for EB2 I/C this may just add as a buffer to make the
2500 per month flat figure look centrist neither too liberal and nor too
conservative.
Many people believe that there was demand destruction due to the bad market
situation the ratio of 1 account for 38% demand destruction implicitly as 1
/ 2.125 * .75 = .62. Most conservative calculations would only assume 20%
demand destruction for all reasons.
.-With 8 months of intake from Jul 15 to Mar 15 the intake this far has
been 20K.
- This means CO is still short of the 30K mark which we believe is last
year’s SOFAD. There will be no movement in the next bulletin only if they
intend to have a 0 buffer or expect less than 30K SOFAD, the dashboard model
does suggest that the Sofad this year maybe 5k lesser due to the approval
of 20K additional I140’s in the last more months assuming 50% of this was
absorbed in FY 2011 (In the later part of the last quarter movement was
extremely limited) and 50% will carry over to FY-2012.
DASHBOARD TREND
The USCIS dashboard http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...91&charttype=1 trend is good in terms of increased efficiency but quite bad for SOFAD. The backlog has come down from 25K to 17K which means a reduction of 8K. Another interesting point to note is that Sep 2012 saw an almost unprecedented number of completions 12K compared to just 5K in Sep 2010, this was a time when the VB did not advance for EB2 I/C in 2011.
All in all if the backlog reduction for I140 happens at this kind of pace we
will not see 30K SOFAD this year by any chance. This will now significantly
slow down actual EB2 I/C approvals that are Spillover dependent because
they may have enough Eb2 I/C cases. An interesting thing could be how much
of the impact of this was absorbed in FY 2011 itself because quite literally
some of the concurrently filed cases for EB2 I/C cases would have been
approved immediately after the I140 would have been approved. Assuming that
50% of the impact will be felt in 2012 SOFAD may come down by atleast 5K
assuming the correction in backlog by ~ 12K in the preceding 3 months (I140
normally takes 3 months to hit I485). By this CO may have enough people by
the Mar 15th 2008 date assuming the SOFAD expected is 25K and not 30K. The
dates can move forward in the next VB only if the target for SOFAD is 30K,
so I would scale down my expectations to maximum of 1.5-2 months in the best
case scenario, there may also be a chance that in the next bulletin they
may now scale the dates back for actual approvals assuming the intake is
sufficient in the worst case scenario.
TRACKITT TREND
Following is a compare of the EB2 row and EB1 trend so far. For simplicity I
just assumed that Nov is done for approvals.
EB1
2011 - 10+14+13 = 37
2012 - 7+11+38 = 56
The number of Eb1c approvals is almost at 3 times of last year. EB1 A & b
are still in early days. Most EB1c cases will use up more visas as these
folks are less likely to have us born kids as a lot of them will be in the
age group 35-40 when they would have filed I140 & I485. Most of Trackitt
Eb1c is from India, this trend correlates well with high i140 approvals in
recent days.
EB2 ROW
2011 - 88
2012 - 37
EB2 row is significantly underperforming, row has a tendency to pick up
later in the year, last year also row stated weak initially but picked up
later. Overall as of now I feel that things that Eb2 Row decline and EB1
moving faster may just cancel each other.
I hope this is helpful, please use this information based on your individual
judgment & discretion. Comments, critique, suggestions and corrections are
welcome and are appreciated.
Reference: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012 |
l*******c
发帖数: 523 | 2 假设NVC是提前4-9个月通知，那么09-11-2008的PD最晚应该2012年8月可以交I-485. |
c*******l
发帖数: 823 | 3 Thanks 小盐 for the info share. It helps some understanding of trend going
ward.
【在 l*******c 的大作中提到】
: 据烙印论坛说，有人PD是09-11-2008的已经收到NVC的 Fee notice.
: Reference: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012/page112
: 以下是烙印对一月份VB的分析，感觉比较合理：
: Following is the current trend based on the dashboard, Trackitt and other
: news and information.
: GC Issuance date based on 25K will be 15-DEC-2007 - 01-JAN-2008 by the end
: of FY 2012.
: Next VB (Jan 2012) in all probability will be the final intake if HR-3012
: does not go through.
: Possibility 50% - 2 months of additional intake to move to 15th MAY to 01-
|
S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | |
I*********r
发帖数: 559 | 5 弱弱的问一下什么是VB 和NVC?
谢谢
【在 l*******c 的大作中提到】
: 据烙印论坛说，有人PD是09-11-2008的已经收到NVC的 Fee notice.
: Reference: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012/page112
: 以下是烙印对一月份VB的分析，感觉比较合理：
: Following is the current trend based on the dashboard, Trackitt and other
: news and information.
: GC Issuance date based on 25K will be 15-DEC-2007 - 01-JAN-2008 by the end
: of FY 2012.
: Next VB (Jan 2012) in all probability will be the final intake if HR-3012
: does not go through.
: Possibility 50% - 2 months of additional intake to move to 15th MAY to 01-
|
l*******c
发帖数: 523 | 6 VB - Visa Bulletin
NVC - National Visa Center |
B*****g
发帖数: 34098 | 7 最早3月
【在 l*******c 的大作中提到】
: 假设NVC是提前4-9个月通知，那么09-11-2008的PD最晚应该2012年8月可以交I-485.
|
o********s
发帖数: 971 | 8 But, that is for India, right? Based on the numbers I know of, there is a
chance that China advances more than that. my 2cents. |
y**********r
发帖数: 2004 | 9 不是说如果通过了3012，排期会立刻进入2009吗？ |
o********s
发帖数: 971 | 10 won't be for this month. |
l*******c
发帖数: 523 | 11 咱们先不考虑HR3012吧，那还需要参议院投票通过。假设没有HR3012的情况下，Feb.和
Mar.的VB很有可能会后退。但这也取决于CO想建立多少inventory。按SOFAD算，Jan.后
应该已经有足够的inventory了。 |
y**********r
发帖数: 2004 | 12 如果退到07夏的话那么再建库存是不是得再次大跃进了？一次跃1年？
【在 l*******c 的大作中提到】
: 咱们先不考虑HR3012吧，那还需要参议院投票通过。假设没有HR3012的情况下，Feb.和
: Mar.的VB很有可能会后退。但这也取决于CO想建立多少inventory。按SOFAD算，Jan.后
: 应该已经有足够的inventory了。
|
